The Northeast Sea Route’s Impact On Trade Potential Between China And The Countries Along

The ozone hole has caused the global climate to continue to warm,and the sea ice area in the Arctic has gradually decreased.Countries are beginning to realize the convenience and feasibility of using the Arctic channel.The northeast waterway of the Arctic Channel traverses the Arctic Ocean,communicates with the two oceans,and connects Asia and Europe.Once fully developed and utilized,the Central European voyage will be greatly shortened,thus saving a lot of shipping costs.At the same time,the route avoids sensitive waterways such as the Straits of Malacca and the Suez Canal,reducing the shipping pressure of traditional waterways and the real life threats such as hegemony and pirates.In addition,the development of the Northeast Passage can also be in line with the development of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.It has refined the layout of China’s shipping industry,forming a pattern of eastward and westward extensions,and extending north and south to ensure energy supply and foreign trade transportation.It can be seen that the northeast navigation channel’s interest in China is a strategic guarantee for China to go global and achieve a peaceful rise.This paper first expounds the background and research significance of the topic,summarizes the research situation of domestic and abroad scholars on the Arctic route,and explains the research content and research framework of this paper.Secondly,it briefly summarizes the natural conditions and navigation status of the Arctic channel,and then analyzes the impact of the Arctic route on China,s trade and analyzes the trade situation between China and the countries surrounding the route through data analysis.Finally,the data from the 10 countries alongside Arctic routes from 2003 to 2017 are selected as panel data.The Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model is used to calculate the trade potential of the Arctic route and compare it with the trade potential of the traditional route.The results show that if China used the Arctic route,export potential would have increased by an average of 9%,and export potential would have increased by an average of 13%.The innovative outcomes of this paper are mainly reflected in:(1)Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model,the models of the northeast channel of the Arctic route before and after were established,and the changes in trade potential were observed by comparing the data.(2)According to the parameterized equations and technical efficiency values,the current trade efficiency between China and the 10 countries along the route is measured,and the impact of the opening of the Arctic Channel on the trade efficiency of China and the 10 countries along the route is evaluated.