Analysis Of Power Purchase Risk Management Of Grid Corporation Under Electricity Market

With the deepening of the reform of electric power system in our country,the effective market competition system has been constructed gradually.The power purchase mode of the grid corporation under the traditional planned economy system can no longer meet the requirements of market-oriented reform.The electricity purchase of the grid corporation needs to keep pace with the development of the new situation,and combined with its own characteristics,constantly adjust,improve and perfect;At the same time,under the competitive power market,the grid corporation will face more and more complex risks,which will make the grid corporation suffer a huge risk of loss of revenue,and thus have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the grid corporation.Therefore,it is not only necessary and urgent to study the risk management of electricity purchase of the grid corporation under the power market,but also has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development of the grid corporation.The main research work in this paper has the following aspects:Firstly,this paper reviews the domestic and foreign literatures on power purchase risk management of grid corporation,introduces and comments the existing research results from multiple perspectives,and expounds the risk management theory and modern portfolio theory as the theoretical basis of this paper;Secondly,the risk factors of power purchase are identified and analyzed from multiple dimensions to fully understand the possible risk losses faced by grid corporation,and the multi-link relationship of power purchase risk factors is studied by ISM method,so as to more profoundly reflect the mutual relationship between various power purchase risk factors;Thirdly,for grid corporation purchasing power of the main factors in the risk factors,this paper puts forward the corresponding power purchase risk prevention methods,such as:a new power load combination forecasting model is established and the mean-CVaR electricity purchasing portfolio optimization model,the results show that the presented method can be more scientifically and effectively dealing with power purchase risk faced by grid corporation;Fourthly,according to the previous research,the paper puts forward four risk prevention measures for power purchase,which provides a reference basis for power purchase by grid corporation;Fifthly,in order to improve the overall efficiency of power purchase risk management,a comprehensive evaluation model of power purchase risk management based on AHP+fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established,which provides a new method and theoretical basis for the actual power purchase risk management of grid corporation.