Electricity Purchasing And Sales Strategy And Risk Management For Power Grid Under Deregulation Of Retail Electricity Market

China is now carrying out a new power system reform with the deregulation of retail electricity market as its main subject.The deregulation of retail electricity market will bring more vitality for Chinese electricity market and more challenges for power grid corporations.Traditional electricity consumption forecasting methods,electricity purchasing and sales strategy and risk management methods will not work any longer under deregulation of retail electricity market.Therefore electricity purchasing and sales strategy and risk management under deregulation of retail electricity market are studied in this paper.Firstly Laspeyres algorithm is improved,decomposition applicability coefficient is proposed,and improved Laspeyres decomposition model of electricity consumption is established to support the forecasting of electricity consumption under deregulation of retail electricity market.Secondly capacity transfer representation index system is built,a principal component regression analysis based on the capacity transfer representation index system is built,the concept of Weighted Squared Percentage Error(WSPE)which works well under deregulation of retail electricity market is proposed,a combining model for electricity consumption forecasting based on WSPE under deregulation of retail electricity market is built.The electricity consumption forecasting method builds the foundation of electricity purchasing and sales strategy and risk management under deregulation of retail electricity market.Then several electricity markets under deregulation of retail electricity market are studied,electricity purchasing strategy based on modern portfolio theory is built,electricity purchasing strategy considering options under deregulation of retail electricity market is built,and electricity sales strategy considering interruptible load contract under deregulation of retail electricity market is built.Finally new risk sources under deregulation of retail electricity market are studied,Weighted Conditional Value at Risk(WCVaR)is proposed,skewness is introduced into risk management of electricity purchasing and sales strategy,and skewness-WCVaR based dynamic risk management of electricity purchasing and sales under deregulation of retail electricity market is built.