Research On Power Purchase Risk Management Of Power Grid Companies Under The New Situation Of Policies And Markets

2021 October 11,National Development and Reform Commission[2021]No.1439"National Development and Reform Commission Notice on Further Deepening the Market Reform of Feed-in Tariff for Coal-fired Power Generation" states that.The regions should expand the range of market trading tariff up and down,promote the industrial and commercial users are into the market,abolish the industrial and commercial catalogue sales tariff,and require all regions of the country to effectively organize and carry out good power grid enterprise agent to purchase electricity.This means that at this stage the policy situation for power purchase by grid companies has changed dramatically,and as the process of power industry reform and power system reform continues to advance,the power market environment for power purchase by grid companies has become more complex.In this new policy and market situation,the grid company how to respond to the tariff policy and the development of the electricity market changes,how to ensure reasonable returns on power purchase and minimize the purchase of electricity risk,is the current stage of the grid company facing important issues and great challenges.This paper identifies,assesses and controls the risks of power purchase by grid companies under the new policy and market situation,Firstly,this paper composes the basic theory of risk management,including the overview of risk,the process and method of risk identification,the process and method of risk assessment and the process and method of risk control,which lays the theoretical foundation for the study of power purchase risk in the new situation below;Secondly,through questionnaire research,expert interviews and literature analysis on power purchase risks,this paper identifies the power purchase risk factors under the four major sources of power purchase risks such as policy side,demand side,supply side and operation side under the new situation of policy and market,and analyses the relationship between power purchase risk factors of grid companies based on the explanatory structure model;This paper then establishes a risk assessment model for power purchase of grid companies under the new situation of policy and market.The risk assessment model proposes a risk assessment method for power purchase of grid companies considering risk association and risk aversion preference coefficient,by constructing a risk assessment index system,using DEMATEL method to realize the conversion of association relationship between power purchase risk factors,calculating the influence importance of power purchase risk factors,and calculating the combination weight of power purchase risk factors based on subjective weight and Gini coefficient objective weight method,and by introducing VOKOR method,considering the risk aversion preference of decision makers,calculating the comprehensive index of power purchase risk of grid companies;Finally,this paper establishes an optimisation model for power purchase under the new situation of policy and market.Based on the knowledge of the principles related to risk-profit,the riskprofit maximisation as the objective function,the risk-profit constraint,the power purchase resource constraint and the power demand constraint as the constraints,the power purchase risk optimisation model is established,and the particle swarm algorithm is selected to solve the model,and on this basis,the power purchase risk control strategy of the power grid company under the new situation of policy and market for the four major sources of power purchase risk is proposed.This paper identifies,evaluates and controls the risk of power purchase in the new policy and market situation of power grid companies.It can provide a direction for power grid companies to identify the risk factors of power purchase in the new policy and market situation,provide reference ideas for power grid companies to conduct comprehensive assessment and optimisation of power purchase risk in the new policy and market situation,and provide auxiliary decision support for power purchase risk management of power grid companies at this stage.