Spatial-temporal Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of Container Sea-rail Combined Transport Volume In China

In recent years,the state has successively issued a series of policies,such as the Outline of Building a Country with Strong Transportation and the Guidance of Nine Departments on Building a World-class Port,to vigorously promote the construction of container sea-rail combined transport.The development of container sea-rail combined transport in our country has entered the fast lane,but it still has a strong spatial imbalance.This paper identified spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of container sea-rail combined transport volume,it can show the unbalanced development of container sea-rail combined transport from a macro perspective and further improve the infrastructure layout,so as to promote the development of sea-rail combined transport,create world-class ports,and play a supporting role in construction transportation power.Forty-one ports were selected in China as research objects,the container sea-rail combined transport volume was characterized by the Container quantity of Port railway collection and distribution.Weighted standard deviation ellipse method and spatial analysis were used to describe the spatial-temporal pattern of container sea-rail combined transport volume and to analyze its evolution trend,and conduct statistical test on the aggregation of container sea-rail combined transport volume distribution through random test.Then,Moran's I value and Lisa value were used to analyze the spatial correlation effect of container sea-rail combined transport volume.Finally,the spatial econometric model of container sea-rail combined transport volume was constructed to study its driving mechanism.The results show that,firstly,from 2013 to 2017,the evolution trend of container sea-rail combined transport volume pattern in the two directions of railway load and railway distribution has a high similarity.The overall pattern of container sea-rail combined transport volume pattern moves to the northeast,indicating that the growth rate of container sea-rail combined transport volume in northeast ports is faster than that in southwest ports.The range of spatial distribution generally shows a shrinking trend in the fluctuation,which indicates that the demand is more concentrated in the inner region of the standard deviation ellipse,and the demand of container sea-railway combined transport shows a shrinking trend in the space.The distribution direction of the spatial pattern of container sea-railway combined transport demand has been rotating anticlockwise,and the spatial distribution tends to be circular.Secondly,the center longitude,center latitude,direction angle and shape of the spatial pattern of container sea-rail combined transport volume show significant aggregation characteristics,which shows that there is a significant generation mechanism of the spatial pattern of container sea-rail combined transport volume,and it is valuable to study the driving mechanism Thirdly,there is a significant negative spatial autocorrelation in container sea-rail combined transport volume,which is decreasing year by year.Fourthly,the regression effect of spatial error model was significant,the export volume of port city,the share rate of railway freight,and the outbound volume of port container are the main driving factors of container quantity of port railway collection,while the import volume and transport structure of port city were the main driving factors of container quantity of port railway distribution.Finally,in view of the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of the demand for sea-rail combined transport,suggestions are given on the development of sea-rail combined transport in ports and the layout of sea-rail combined transport at the national macro level.