Study On The Impact Of Arctic Route On Trade Between China And Eight Coutries

As the ship's large-scale process continues to accelerate,the existing navigation conditions of the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal are gradually unable to meet the growing demand for navigation.In recent years,the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice has caused concern in the Arctic route.The navigation of the Arctic route will significantly shorten the maritime distance between Asia and Europe and the Americas,and have an important impact on China's foreign trade and economic development.This paper introduces the two concepts of trade potential and Arctic route by summarizing and collating existing literature and data,and introduces in detail the generation and development of stochastic frontier gravity model and the measurement method of technical efficiency and non-efficiency model.It has laid a theoretical foundation for trade efficiency and trade potential with the eight Arctic countries.After that,this paper analyzes the trade situation between China and the eight Arctic countries from two aspects:bilateral economic and trade development briefings and economic and trade cooperation between China and the Arctic.On this basis,the panel data of China and the Arctic eight countries from 2007 to 2016 were selected.The stochastic frontal gravitation model was used to analyze the natural and human factors affecting the trade between China and the Arctic,and the trade efficiency and trade between China and the eight Arctic countries were measured.The potential and the trade potential of China and the eight Arctic countries after the opening of the Arctic route prove that the Arctic route is of great value to the trade development between China and the Arctic Eight countries by comparing the trade potential of traditional routes with the trade potential of the Arctic routes.The results show that:(1)compared with the traditional canal route,the opening of the arctic route will shorten the shipping distance between China and the sample countries by 21%to 46%;(2)the distance between the trading countries has a significant negative impact on the export volume and total trade volume of the two countries.When the distance is shortened by 1%,the export volume increases by 0.64%and the total import and export volume increases by 0.39%;(3)the Arctic route has played a significant role in enhancing the trade potential between China and the Eight arctic countries.The export potential increased by 18.25%on average,and the total trade potential increased by 11.12%on average.At the same time,the trade efficiency between China and the eight arctic countries needs to be improved,and various trade barriers caused by human factors are the main reasons for the non-efficiency of trade.Based on this situation,China and the eight Arctic countries should strengthen regional economic cooperation,promote the development of bilateral trade and achieve a win-win situation.