Research On The Impact Of The Arctic Route On The Trade Potential Of China, Japan, South Korea And Countries Along The Route

In terms of the latest scientific data,the Arctic region is warming faster than expected,the melting of the Arctic ice cap is accelerating,coupled with the improvement of icebreakers and other technologies,the arctic shipping route has become inevitable.China,Japan and the ROK have strong economic vitality,first-class manufacturing capacity and dependence on maritime trade,and lie in the extension of the Arctic shipping route.At the same time,the development of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic route is not difficult,so China can effectively avoid the Strait of Malacca,Andaman Sea,Red Sea,Suez Canal and other sensitive sea areas,reducing the threat of maritime hegemony.The development of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic route can deeply improve the shipping pattern of Our country,and form an ocean shipping route that advances from north to south and from east to west.The rational development of northeast Passage is of great significance to China,so the Northeast Passage of arctic passage becomes the focus of this.Combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,this paper first introduces the shortening of shipping distances and the impact on future ocean-going trade caused by the opening of the Arctic route,and then describes the economic aggregate,total trade and bilateral trade of China,Japan and South Korea and countries along the Arctic route.In the quantitative part,panel data of 10 major countries along the Northeast Passage of the Arctic Route from 2007 to 2020 are extracted,and the impact of trade potential between China,Japan and South Korea and countries along the Arctic Route is empirically analyzed by using stochastic frontier gravity model.This paper studies the trade efficiency of each country under the current situation and compares the shipping distance changes of China,Japan and South Korea and other countries along the route before and after the opening of the new route.Based on the shortened shipping distance,the proportion of trade potential improvement between China,Japan and South Korea and the countries along the Route is estimated,and it is concluded that the effect of the opening of arctic route on trade potential between China,Japan and South Korea and the countries along the route is not very different,but the effect is significant.It is still necessary for the three countries to strengthen technical cooperation with the countries along the route for common development.At the same time,the comparison also found that there are more industrial competition between China and Japan and South Korea in the future,we must be vigilant.The opening of the Arctic route will have a positive impact on the trade development of China,Japan and the ROK.China should seize the opportunity of shipping routes to strengthen trade exchanges and technical cooperation with countries along the routes,optimize industrial structure and enhance core competitiveness.China should work with Japan and the ROK to upgrade shipping technology,strengthen trade cooperation,actively develop arctic shipping routes,take an active part in arctic governance,and gradually conduct economic and trade cooperation with countries along the Routes as "partners".