Research On The Impact Of International Energy Price On China's Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation

Maintaining the relative stability of agricultural prices is one of the important goals of the party and the government's macroeconomic regulation and control.In recent years,under the influence of various factors at home and abroad,China's agricultural product prices fluctuated more frequently and the volatility was larger.With the development of global economic integration,the influence of international market factors such as international energy prices on the price of Chinese agricultural products has been deepening.This paper first expounds the relevant theories of agricultural product priee fluctuations,including supply and demand equilibrium theory,economic fluctuation theory and Marx production price theory,and analyzes the ways in which international energy prices affect China's agricultural product price fluctuations from the perspectives of cost-driven effect and supply-demand driving effect.Mechanism of action.On the basis of theoretical analysis,combined with vector autoregressive model,impulse response function and variance decomposition and path analysis method,quantitative analysis of the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China's agricultural product price fluctuations,the direction of impact and the adoption of international agricultural prices Factors such as inflation rate and the indirect impact on China's agricultural product price fluctuations.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between international energy prices and Chinese agricultural product prices,and international energy prices can not only directly affect China's agricultural product prices,but also The price of agricultural products in China has an indirect effect.Among them,the direct path coefficient of international energy prices to agricultural product prices is only 0.102,and the indirect impact coefficient of factors such as international agricultural product prices,agricultural production materials prices and money supply is 0.536.Based on the research results,the article proposes to develop a sound international energy monitoring mechanism,regulate inflation rate,formulate appropriate monetary policy,innovate agricultural production technology to reduce dependence on international energy,regulate the production structure of agricultural products,and regulate the import and export structure of agricultural products.The series of countermeasures to stabilize the price of Chinese agricultural products.