Risk Assessment And Management Of Key Embankment Collapse In Poyang Lake Area

Poyang Lake is the "mother lake" of Jiangxi people.After the 1998 floods,the state has launched the second phase of the Poyang Lake treatment project and the key dike anti-seepage treatment project,so that the flood control capacity of the lake area dike project has been effectively improved.Despite this,the overall flood control system of key embankments in the lake area is still not perfect,some of the embankments have low flood control standards,and the anti-seepage performance and structural safety performance cannot meet the requirements.The management technology of various types of embankments is also relatively lagging,and the management level is far from the construction level.In order to solve the difficulties faced by the risk assessment and management of key embankment collapse in Poyang Lake area,based on the investigation of the construction and management of key embankments in Poyang Lake area,this paper systematically analyzes the topography and geological conditions of the lake area embankment,hydrology,hidden safety hazards,etc.The level of economic and social development combines organically the risk assessment of levee breakout with the downstream residents,social environment and economic development level,puts forward a method for levee breakout risk assessment,builds a tier dike project safety rating system based on a diversified risk index system,and establishes a levee Project life cycle risk assessment and management framework.Finally,relying on the key embankment of Poyang Lake-Kangshan Embankment to carry out the risk assessment and management research caused by the embankment collapse,realized a smooth transition from "current evaluation method system" to "standardized management system of integrated risk".The main research work is as follows:(1)On the basis of a systematic investigation on the statistical analysis of major accident data of levee collapse in Jiangxi Province,dyke risk assessment and management research progress,a full life cycle risk assessment and management framework for levee engineering was established,from design-construction-operation three In this stage,the content and differences of the risk analysis were elaborated,and the key points of risk in each stage and related management measures were determined.(2)Constructed a multiple evaluation index system of levee engineering risk based on extreme learning machine,and studied the application of the constructed multiple evaluation index system in the key levee safety grade evaluation in Poyang Lake area.(3)A numerical model for flood evolution of Kangshan flood storage and detention area in Poyang Lake area was established,and the flood evolution process of flood storage and detention area under the highest historical water level was simulated.The organic combination of flood evolution and loss calculation estimates the loss of life,economy and ecological environment in the flood storage and detention area,which provides a theoretical and technical reference for guiding the flood prevention and rescue of the dike project.(4)Organically integrate the risk management theory with the dike engineering work,technology,management and assessment standardization system,draw up the standard map of the life,economic and environmental risks of dike projects in the central region of China,and establish a risk-based dike engineering standardization management system.It provides an effective way to solve the problems existing in the management of key embankments in Poyang Lake area.