Research On Steel Rail Inventory Quantity Control And Forecast Of Material Company

Rail is the main material in railway construction.It has the character of high technique and long production cycle.As the high-speed development of economy,the construction of highspeed railway and subway keeps in a high level.Rails are both in great demand and supply.As a rail supply company,it is of practical significance to truly improve the level of management,keep a good level of inventory,which could both guarantee the schedule of construction and avoid the mass stock of rails,make sure the funds are used efficiently.The article takes a rail supply company as an example and do analysis of rail inventory based on the writer's experiences and historical data.It pointed out some issues regarding the inventory of rails of this company that the rails in stock are not coding,the management are simple and primitive,the method of classification is old,ordering is not based on accurate basis,the stock rails are of low utilization rate and the cost of utilization is high.To improve the issue,the company need to improve the management efficiency,introduce modern management method,find the key rail based on the multiply data abstracted from stock rails and scientific classification,then effectively predict and stock,make sure zero inventory of other type of materials.The systematically optimize the structure of stocking will greatly improve the level of management,and thus lower the cost of company and increase profit.There are 22 different type of rails in stock.The article choose 14 typical rails and classified them as type A,B,C based on total value,mount and delivery frequency.To guarantee the accuracy of results,I introduce another XYZ analysis method to predict the volatility of rails.Combined this result with the results of ABC analysis method,an ABC-XYZ matrix will be obtained.It will be deduced that the key rail is U75V*60kg/m*25m welding rail.In order to control the stock,I need to analyze the key rail.The article choose 6 different method to predict the results: simple moving average method,Weighted moving average,simple exponential smoothing,Quadratic exponential smoothing,Unitary linear regression method and mean difference GM(1,1)predication method.After formula derivation,comparing the history data with average error rate,I finally choose Quadratic exponential smoothing method and mean difference GM(1,1)predication method to predict the actual requirement of rails in 2019.And the inventory can be lowered and management could be improved.The main purpose of the article is to solve the rails inventory problem.The ABC-XYZ matrix,Quadratic exponential smoothing method and mean difference GM(1,1)predication method used in this article could also be used for reference in solving other similar issues.