Risk Assessment And Key Risk Source Diagnosis Of Long-distance Water Diversion Project Based On Fuzzy Evidence Reasoning

The long-distance water diversion project is a major strategic infrastructure to solve the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space.Because the long-distance water diversion project has long lines,complex geological conditions,various engineering structures,and is greatly affected by natural disasters and social environments,it induces engineering emergencies.There are many uncertain factors in the occurrence of incidents.Once the project crashes,it will seriously affect the life and property safety of the people along the line.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out emergency risk assessment and key risk source diagnosis of long-distance water diversion projects.This article takes the emergency risk of a long-distance water diversion project as the research object,and the main research contents are as follows:(1)In view of the characteristics of emergencies in long-distance water diversion projects,based on data collection and field investigation,the work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure(WBS-RBS)identification method was used to identify the emergent incident risks of long-distance water diversion projects,and the long-distance water diversion project was determined.Distance water diversion project emergency risk list,and risk analysis of the identified risk factors.(2)On the basis of the preliminary selection of risk assessment indicators for emergencies of long-distance water diversion projects,the main component analysis of the indicators is carried out,and the indicators with a smaller load factor and weaker impact on the emergent incidents of long-distance water diversion projects are deleted,and the extracted principal components are renewed.Named and constructed an optimized long-distance water diversion project emergency risk evaluation index system.(3)The index weight is calculated based on the entropy method.Aiming at the characteristics of fuzziness and uncertainty in the risk of emergencies in long-distance water diversion projects,the fuzzy normal distribution is used as the membership function distribution of the fuzzy evaluation level,an improved fuzzy reliability structure model is established,and the fuzzy evidence is constructed by combining the evidence reasoning algorithm.Reasoning model,using fuzzy evidence reasoning model to evaluate the emergency risk of long-distance water diversion project.On the basis of comprehensive evaluation,the invariable weight subconstraint model is used to diagnose key risk sources.Taking the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example,the practicability of the model is verified.