Construction Load Forecasting And Analysis Of Cold And Heat Source Schemes For Complex Project

With the rapid development of China’s economy and the rapid progress of urban construction,there are more and more urban complex projects with high efficiency.The urban complex project integrates different types of buildings,including hotels,offices,apartments,businesses,restaurants and other comprehensive building groups.In the early stage of construction,the planning and design of energy system is very important for improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions.The prediction of building energy demand is the basic link in planning and design.Therefore,the building of the complex project should be selected reasonably It is an important research topic to determine the cooling and heating source scheme based on the load forecasting method.In this paper,aiming at the problems of building load prediction method and selection of cold and heat source scheme,the influencing factors of building load of complex project are analyzed,including building orientation,building load characteristics and uneven distribution of service time,etc.,and the load prediction model based on scenario analysis method is established to analyze the building heat load and cooling load under different influencing factors and different formats Based on the load forecast results,combined with the construction characteristics,business types and the construction period of the project,the two schemes of the cold and heat source center are compared and analyzed.Through the application of theoretical analysis and practical cases,it can be concluded that the scenario analysis method is more simple and practical in the early stage of energy planning and scheme.Through the scenario analysis method,the building load of the complex project can be predicted relatively accurately.For the case of Hefei complex project,two schemes of distributed cooling and heat source,electric cooling,ice storage and gas boiler,are adopted.Based on the hourly load distribution predicted,the energy consumption distribution data of the cooling and heat source scheme of the complex project can be analyzed.Through comparative analysis,it can be concluded that for the hot summer and cold winter areas,in the complex projects with hotels,businesses,offices and apartments,ice storage air conditioning can not only make good use of the time-sharing electricity price policy,save operating costs,but also reduce the installed capacity and power of the refrigeration host.For large-scale complex projects,under the condition of ensuring occupancy rate,the initial investment of decentralized scheme is 7.7% higher than that of centralized scheme,and the annual operation cost is 22.2% higher.Therefore,the centralized scheme is more economical than decentralized scheme,and the centralized setting of heat and cold source system has more advantages in system energy efficiency and economy.Based on the scenario analysis method and regional energy planning theory,the planning and design method suitable for the comprehensive utilization of energy resources of urban complex can be summarized,which provides certain reference significance for the load forecasting of the complex project and the selection of energy system scheme.