Based On Cloud Model Of EPC Prefabricated Concrete Building Supply Chain Risk Assessment

Generally speaking,the labor-intensive and extensive construction mode often brings problems such as low efficiency,frequent quality problems of construction products,and difficult to improve economic benefits.In order to solve this key problem,accelerate the construction transformation,the assembly building with the advantages of high production efficiency and low human demand has been highly recommended by the government.In the five years from 2016 to2020,the State Council and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development have formulated a series of supporting and guiding documents for prefabricated buildings.By setting phased goals,standardizing the prefabricated building market,and formulating industrial and technical specifications,they are constantly accelerating the pace of the development of prefabricated buildings and catching up with the new wave of the construction industry.With the vigorous promotion of the national government,the volume of prefabricated buildings is getting larger,the more risks and uncertainties in the supply chain of prefabricated construction projects are,the more important the risk management and control of the PC construction supply chain is.Based on the above problems,this paper puts the research object on the PC construction project of EPC general contract,analyzes and discusses the supply chain risk in detail,establishes the risk index system,and uses the cloud model theory to evaluate the risk level of the PC construction supply chain of EPC in detail.Firstly,the development background of prefabricated building and the research status of supply chain at home and abroad are summarized,and the research object and significance of this paper are determined.Referring to the general supply chain structure model described by previous studies,this paper puts forward a PC construction supply chain structure model of EPC,which covers six main bodies(owner,EPC contractor,designer,material and equipment supplier,component manufacturer,professional subcontractor).Based on the traditional SCOR model of manufacturing industry,this paper describes the supply chain operation model of EPC PC building,combs out the five main processes of operation,further analyzes the risk origin of its supply chain,and determines the specific risk factor index list of PC building supply chain by EPC.Then,using the relative advantages of AHP and entropy weight,the inherent calculation method of index weight is improved.The subjective weight and objective weight are obtained respectively by operation,and the mean value of the two weights is calculated(this paper thinks that the subjective and objective results are equally important),and the risk index weights of theoptimized EPC general contract PC construction supply chain are obtained.By introducing the theory of subordinate cloud and its generator,combined with the optimized weight comprehensive value,a subordinate cloud assessment model of PC construction supply chain risk is obtained.Finally,combined with the location relationship and similarity of standard cloud and evaluation Cloud chart,the paper analyzes the risk level of example supply chain of F City assembly building demonstration community project,and confirms the validity and practicability of the risk evaluation model of the PC building supply chain by EPC based on the cloud model theory.Finally,it provides risk control methods,countermeasures and measures to reduce the uncertainty of supply chain for building related enterprises and managers,hoping to strengthen the stability of PC supply chain of EPC.