Research On The Factors Of Influcing The Travel Mode Choice Of Residents In Changchun In Winter

In recent years,with the continuous development of Changchun's economy and the further acceleration of the urbanization process,the following is the increasing travel demand of residents and the continuous increase of vehicle ownership,which leads to a series of urban traffic problems such as traffic congestion.Especially in winter,affected by the cold climate,more people choose private cars to travel,resulting in serious unreasonable travel structure,which aggravates traffic congestion and environmental pollution in winter.In order to alleviate the winter traffic pressure and optimize the travel structure of Changchun City,it is very important to study the influencing factors of residents' choice of travel mode in winter.Combined with the winter travel characteristics of urban residents in cold regions cities,this paper analyzes the winter travel characteristics of Changchun City.Rail transit,bus,private car and taxi are the main travel modes in Changchun in winter.The RP survey method is selected to collect travel data from three aspects:Traveler characteristics,travel characteristics and travel mode characteristics.Make statistical analysis on the survey data,and use the survey data to establish MNL model and NL model respectively.Using R language programming to calibrate the parameters of the model and test the statistics,according to the results of the model,analyze the influencing factors of the choice of winter residents' travel mode in Changchun.NL model with higher goodness of fit ratio is selected to predict the travel sharing rate of each travel mode after changing some key factors.The results show that gender,age,bus card,private car,education,income,nature of work,travel purpose,peak travel time,travel cost,waiting time,travel time in vehicle,walking time and satisfaction of travel mode characteristics are significant factors influencing the choice of travel mode of residents in Changchun in winter.By changing the values of some key influencing factors,this paper forecasts the share rate of various travel modes.The prediction results show that: the change of travelcost,waiting time and walking time of rail transit has a greater impact on the share rate of rail transit;the change of travel time,waiting time and walking time of bus makes the share rate of bus change significantly;The change of private car travel cost makes the share rate of private car change obviously;the change of taxi travel cost has a significant impact on the share rate of taxi.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the choice of winter residents' travel mode in Changchun City,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions to the traffic planning and management departments.In order to improve the winter travel structure of Changchun City and other cities in the same type of cold region,and to improve the share rate of public transport in winter travel,the reference basis is provided.