Research On Travel Modes Of Urban Residents During Winter In Northwest Cold Areas Of China

Due to the long winter duration,cold and dry climate in the northwest cold areas of China,and often a certain amount of snowfall,the structure of travel modes of urban residents during winter in this area are different from other seasons.In recent years,with the rapid growth of the urban population and the increasing number of motor vehicles in the area,problems such as winter traffic congestion and traffic accidents have become more prominent,which has seriously affected the operation of the transportation system and the efficiency and safety of urban residents in the area.Therefore,it is of great significance and application value to analyze the travel mode and study the travel characteristics of urban residents during winter in solving the winter transportation problems in the northwest cold areas.This paper first analyzes the winter climate characteristics,the travel characteristics of residents and the influence of winter climate on the traffic in the northwest cold areas.Then,based on winter travel survey data of residents in Qilihe District of Lanzhou City,the influencing factors needed for the modeling are determined from four aspects of personal attribute,family attribute,travel characteristics and intention problems.Finally,establishing Multinomial Logit(MNL)model and geographic detector model,this paper analyzes the mechanism of 13 factors such as household registration,age,gender,annual income,job type,private car,travel purpose,travel time,travel distance,travel cost,waiting time,closed bus stops and rationality of the setting of public transport stops on the travel mode choice of urban residents during winter in this area.The main research conclusions have been made:(1)The results of MNL model and geographic detector model show that the other 12 factors except household registration have significant impact on residents' choice of travel mode in winter,and the effect of each significant factor is the same.(2)Taking the bus as a reference item,the key influencing factors of each travel model obtained through the geographical detector model.For walking,the travel cost,travel distance,the demand of closed bus stops,travel time and the rationality of bus stop setting are the key influencing factors;For bicycles(shared bicycles),the travel cost and closed bus stops are key factors;For electric vehicles(motorcycles),the closed bus stops,travel time and rationality of bus stop setting are the key influencing factors;For taxis(network appointments vehicles),the closed bus stops,travel cost and waiting time are the key influencing factors;For private car,the demand of closed bus stops,travel cost,private car,rationality of bus stop setting and annual income are the key influencing factors.(3)The interactive detector results of geographical detector model show that the residents' travel mode choice is also affected by the interaction of various factors.Taking the bus as a reference item,for walking,the combination of the demand of the closed bus stops and the private car has the strongest interactive influence;For bicycles(shared bicycles),the combination of travel cost and job type combination has the strongest interactive influence;For electric vehicles(motorcycles),the combination of closed bus stops and travel time combination has the strongest interactive influence;For taxis(network rides),the combination of travel time and travel cost has the strongest interactive influence;For private car,the interaction effect of travel time and travel cost combination is the strongest.