Research On The Influencing Factors Of Winter Travel Mode Choice For Residents In Cold Regions

The winter in cold regions of China is very long,accompanied by continuous snowfall and low temperatures,which leads to a different travel structure compared to other cities.A reasonable travel structure can make the transportation system operate more efficiently,which has certain theoretical and practical significance for improving winter travel structure,reducing winter traffic congestion,and promoting urban green development.Therefore,it is very important to study the influencing factors and sharing rate of winter travel modes for residents in cold regions.This article is based on the survey data of winter residents’ travel in cold regions,applies the theory of maximum utility to construct an MNL model,analyzes the main influencing factors of winter residents’ travel in cold regions,calculates the changes in sharing rates,and proposes strategies to optimize the transportation status.The main content of the thesis includes:(1)Using the Coburn climate method to determine the scope of cold regions,the climate characteristics of cold regions and their impact on transportation,environment,and urban development were analyzed.The decision-making process of people’s travel was analyzed,and relevant travel theories were elaborated in detail.Based on this,the basic travel modes of cold cities were explained,and the advantages and disadvantages of various travel modes were compared and analyzed.(2)Using a questionnaire survey method combining SP method and RP method,using the Likert seven point method to score attitude perception attributes;And select the ideal confidence level for sample size calculation to determine the optimal sample size;Conduct data research and statistical analysis to analyze the choice of travel modes under adverse weather and road conditions,and test the reliability and validity of the collected data,thereby verifying the reliability of the research data.(3)By comparing and analyzing non aggregated models and aggregated models,the type of model in this article was determined.Cross analysis of the data was conducted using contingency analysis and chi square test.The test results showed that education,monthly income,number of family members,and travel purpose did not affect the choice of travel mode;The data was processed using one-way ANOVA,and the analysis results showed that travel preferences had no impact on the choice of travel modes;Multiple Logit models were used to model and analyze the factors that affect the travel of residents in cold regions,and utility functions were calculated.The results of the MNL model showed that the main influencing factors for winter travel mode of residents in cold regions include gender,whether they can drive,age,travel distance,travel time,travel cost,comfort,safety,convenience,punctuality,economy,and environmental protection.(4)Under the conditions of changing travel costs and time,the changes in the sharing rate of different travel modes were calculated and analyzed,and relevant suggestions were proposed.The research results indicate that when the travel costs of private cars and taxis change,the changes in the sharing rates of these two modes are more significant,while the changes in the sharing rates of bicycles/electric vehicles are relatively weak,while the growth trend of the sharing rates of conventional public transportation and subways is more obvious;After changing the cost of regular public transportation,the share rate of regular public transportation changes significantly;After changing the travel time of private cars and regular public transportation,the changes in the sharing rate of these two methods are more significant,while the changes in the sharing rate of taxis are relatively stable.