| With the rapid development of economy and society,China's urbanization process is also accelerating.On this basis,a number of large urban agglomerations have been formed.In today's China,a typical city cluster is composed of more than three cities.The development of the city cluster makes the cities in the city cluster more closely connected with each other,with more businesses and more traffic between them.Accordingly,in order to further study of urban residents within the scope of intercity travel behavior,this paper builds the introduction of traveler psychological latent variable structure equation model and a number of combined hybrid selection model of Logistics model,based on the data of the intercity travel survey Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration properties analysis of personal property,travel,urban agglomeration,factors such as psychological latent variables and the incident of intercity travel mode choice and transfer behavior.The main work is as follows:(1)The inter-city travel questionnaire of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration was designed by using the survey method combining likert5-level scale,RP and SP,and a total of 1011 valid questionnaires were obtained through the field survey in the railway station and bus station of the Jing-Jin-Ji cities through We Chat and questionnaire star.The reliability and validity test results of the survey data show that the data are valid and reliable..(2)By constructing the structural equation model of intercity travel willingness of residents in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration,the relationship between the psychological potential variables such as flexibility,convenience,comfort,safety,economy and reliability and their intention to choose intercity travel mode was analyzed.The results show that the latent variables such as flexibility and convenience have a significant impact on the travel intention of the three travel modes,and the flexibility has the greatest impact on the travel intention of cars and passenger cars,the safety has the greatest impact on the railway travel intention,and the convenience and comfort have a negative impact on the travel intention of passenger cars(3)By selecting variables of personal attributes,travel attributes,city group attributes,weather and blocking attributes,the Logistic model of inter-city travel mode selection was constructed.The results showed that people with high education background,high income,owning a car,being married and elderly,starting from Beijing,traveling for leisure and entertainment,staying at the destination for 8 days or more,and choosing a car were more likely.The travel destination is tianjin,and the travel frequency is 0-1 times.In the case of moderate to severe haze,the passengers prefer to travel by railway.Moreover,the number of train trips between OD points increased,and travelers were more inclined to choose railway travel.Taking the psychological latent variables of travel intention as explanatory variables,the mixed selection model of inter-city travel choice behavior was constructed by adding them into the multi-logistics model.The results showed that the introduction of latent variables improved the goodness of model fitting and could better explain the influence of psychological factors of travelers on the actual way choice behavior.(4)In addition,a travel transfer model was constructed to analyze whether residents moved under the scenario of severe weather and blocking events.The results show that it is easy to travel in bad weather,and the probability of travel in heavy snow is the highest.The influence of severe weather on railway travel is not significant,but it has a significant impact on the transportation mode transfer of cars and passenger cars,and passenger cars are more prone to transportation mode transfer than cars.The blocking event has a significant impact on the mode transfer of passenger vehicles,among which the probability of travel transfer is the highest under the circumstance of highway closure/cancellation. |
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