| With the continuous development of social economy,the passenger flow of urban comprehensive transportation hub grows rapidly.At present,the problems of passenger retention and long transfer time in existing hubs are becoming more and more prominent.However,there are some shortcomings in the previous studies on transfer efficiency of hubs: most of them focus on the measures to optimize transfer efficiency,while few studies on the effects brought by the implementation of the measures.Aiming at the above problems,this paper introduces scenario analysis method to analyze the improvement effect of transfer efficiency.Firstly,the status quo of transfer at the hub and the satisfaction degree of passengers were investigated.Combined with the analysis of influencing factors of transfer efficiency,the optimization measures were proposed and the optimization scenario was set.Then,based on the requirements of scenario analysis and the definition of transfer efficiency,the index system of scenario analysis is constructed,which takes into account both subjective passenger transfer satisfaction index and objective indicators of hub operation efficiency and smoothness and coordination.Finally,the transfer efficiency of different combinations of measures is evaluated and Suggestions are given.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Establish the hub passenger transfer satisfaction evaluation system based on the structural equation model.Latent variables and observation variables were set for hub satisfaction,and questionnaires were designed and issued.SPSS was used to calculate the mean value of each satisfaction degree,and Amos was used to obtain the structure path coefficient reflecting the degree of influence between latent variables,and the influence weight of each latent variable of the model was calculated according to the structure path coefficient.(2)Determine the improvement measures of transfer efficiency and set scenario classification.First,the DEMATEL&ISM method is used to analyze the impact factors of hub transfer efficiency and determine the key impact factors of transfer efficiency.Then,combined with the research and analysis results of the current situation of hub transfers,the optimization measures of transfer efficiency are proposed,including optimizing the guide signs,optimizing the transfer strea-mline organization and reducing the area of commercial stores.Finally,six future scenarios under different transfer efficiency improvement measures are determined and described.(3)Construct an indicator system of scenario analysis and evaluate and compare future scenarios.By introducing the passenger transfer satisfaction index and comprehensively considering the objective operational efficiency and smoothness and coordination index of the hub,the evaluation index system of the passenger transfer efficiency of the hub based on scenario analysis was established,and the transfer efficiency of the hub under six future scenarios was evaluated by taking Beijing South Railway Station as a case.The following conclusions are drawn: Firstly,based on the scenario analysis theory,considering passenger satisfaction index to evaluate the efficiency of hub transfer is more comprehensive and practical;Secondly,the transfer efficiency is closely related to the passenger satisfaction.The higher the passenger satisfaction,the higher the hub transfer efficiency,and vice versa.Thirdly,after the implementation of all transfer efficiency improvement measures,the transfer efficiency will be increased by nearly10%,and the transfer efficiency will be improved more ideally.This paper introduces passenger transfer satisfaction to construct the transfer efficiency evaluation system,which makes up for the lack of subjective attributes of passengers in the study of transfer efficiency improvement.Meanwhile,it applies scenario analysis theory to quantify the effect under the synergistic effect of existing transfer optimization measures,which has a good engineering reference value. |
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