Statistical Research On Civil Aviation Passenger Transport In China Based On Time Series

In this paper,theoretical knowledge based on time series,in-depth research on the operation status of civil aviation passenger transport in China,fitting and optimization mathematical model using the traditional method and the improvement of the collected data,analysis of the internal rules of civil aviation passenger transport market and future development potential,to provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for future market development and resources configuration.The main research contents and conclusions are summarized as follows:First,study on the basic operation of civil aviation passenger transport in China.This paper focuses on the research of airline passenger data in 2011-2015 through the descriptive statistical analysis.The study found that:China's civil aviation passenger transport although started late but developed rapidly;half of the national civil aviation airport passenger throughput from the eastern region,but in the recent five years,the proportion of passenger throughput increased gradually in the western region,the development of civil aviation passenger transport industry in the region is more balanced;the volume of consumer complaints of air transport has obvious increase in 2015,while the annual complaints are concentrated in the peak in July and August.Two,research on the development trend of China's civil aviation passenger transport.This paper constructs the ARM A model of domestic routes and the ARIMA model of international routes.Compared with the ARMA model and the ARIMA model,the predicted results of the ARMA model are lower than the real value.In this paper,the Gevers-Wouters algorithm is introduced,and the ARMA model is improved by adjusting the parameters of the MA part.The results show that the accuracy is improved effectively.Three,research on aircraft utilization and trend.This paper constructs the vector autoregression model to study the dynamic relationship between the variables of passenger transport volume,passenger turnover and the daily utilization rate of air passenger transport in China.Because of the Granger causality between the small aircraft daily utilization and other variables is unidirectional,it is necessary to improve the vector autoregressive model.Based on the VAR model,this paper introduces the VARX model and the state space model by introducing the daily utilization of the small aircraft as an exogenous variable.By comparing the various indicators of the models,this paper selects the VARX model to predict the daily utilization rate of small aircraft based on AIC criterion and BIC criterion.