Research On Characteristic Trend And Driving Factors Of Macro Building Energy Consumption

At present,China's economy is developing rapidly and the urbanization process is remarkable.Society is still in a stage of rapid development.The goals that in 2020 the national energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP will be reduced by 15%compared with 2015and the total energy consumption will be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal were proposed.In recent years,industrial efforts to reduce emissions have been strong and energy efficiency has rapidly increased.Its energy saving potential has declined.Therefore,the task of reducing emissions in the construction industry has increased.However,At present,China's building energy consumption has continued to increase and China's building energy consumption has accounted for 30%of the terminal energy consumption of the whole society.In 2015,supply-side structural reforms were strengthened.This marked the transformation of China's construction industry management policy from demand-side management to supply-side management.Supply-side structural reform will become an important driving force for China's next stage of economic growth.Energy consumption data is the basis of energy-saving work.However,there is currently a lack of energy consumption data in China.This is the key research that accurate measurement of China's energy consumption and related data and the targeted formulation of energy-saving programs.In the paper,the data calculation of China's macro-building energy consumption and the identification of driving factors were researched.The goal is to measure accurate building energy consumption index data and identify driving factors to quantify the driving degree.Combined with mathematical methods,The data model for measuring energy consumption were established.The relationship between influencing factors and building energy consumption were quantified.This study has greatly improved the current problem of missing energy consumption data in China.This provided data support for the targeted application of administrative means to implement the goal of national dual control.The construction-related index data in various statistical yearbooks were analyzed.Based on the index data of the statistical yearbook,supplement and revise it.According to the Taylor series neural network and the method of splitting the statistical yearbook,the macro building area and building energy consumption calculation model were established.China's building data system was obtained.Based on the energy consumption index data system,the analysis shows that the overall construction area continues to grow at an average annual rate of 5.3%.The overall growth rate of building energy consumption has decreased but it still maintains a growth trend at a rate of5.6%.The intensity of building energy consumption has dropped from the peak of 13.96kgce/m~2 to the current 13.04 kgce/m~2.The central heating area has grown rapidly,with an average annual growth rate of 28%.As the intensity of central heating has decreased,the growth rate of energy consumption for central heating has slowed.According to inductive references,sixteen influencing factors were selected.Through various statistical yearbooks,its panel data were obtained.The information entropy factor analysis model was established,the initial influencing factors were clustered by dimensionality reduction,three driving factors were obtained and the key degree were determined.With the logarithmic function parameter value method,the driving degree of each driving factor to the building were quantified.