Study On The Macro Factors Of Civil Building Energy Consumption Based On STIRPAT Model

Since China’s reform and opening up,In the economic achievements attract worldwide attention.But at the same time,new challenges come one after another,environmental degradation, energy shortages, climate change and so on.That Will bring a shadow to the original healthy economic and social development.Our country vigorously carries out the policy of energy saving and emission reduction,and set the carbon emissions in 2020 national emission reduction targets than in 2005 reduced by20%-25%,this put forward higher requirements to the construction of energy-saving work.Research on civil buildings energy consumption according to different regional economic level, energy supply, consumption concept and other factors have different development.The construction of energy-saving work in hot summer and cold winter area as one of the most densely populated Chinese, the most economically developed regions of the overall energy and even the national emission reduction targets have far-reaching impact.Therefore, to study the civil building energy consumption is very necessary.In this paper, through the method of empirical research on the construction of the model,study on the influence factors of population, urbanization, the living standard of the building energy consumption.The change of civil building energy consumption in hot summer and cold winter area and the use of scenario prediction indicators of different trend analysis method under the situation of growth.To pro-mote the construction of energy-saving work to the relevant departments, formulate relevant policies on the basis of building energy efficiency.This paper mainly based on the STRIPAT model to Selected five indicators of the proportion of the third industry for empirical research on energy consumption of public buildings in hot summer and cold winter area population, per capita GDP, yuan GDP energy consumption, urbanization rate.The main work is made:(1)Describes the background and purpose of this study,and review on the research of civil building energy consumption and on macro data model at home and abroad.The theoretical basis of this paper:The theory of sustainable development, IPAT equation,STRIPAT model.Introduces the research methods used in this paper,including the method of macro data partitioning method, calculation of the construction of civil building energy consumption of econometric models used cointegration theory and panel data model to analyze the energy consumption of buildings in hot summer and cold winter area.(2)This paper based on the STRIPAT model to analyze the influencing factors of energy consumption of public buildings in hot summer and cold winter area.The final selection of five main factors, the proportion of the third industry the resident population,per capita GDP, yuan GDP energy consumption, urbanization rate.Based on the analysis of energy consumption of public buildings in hot summer and cold winter area and its macro influence factors on the variation trend.Try on the influence mechanism.Finally got the resident population, per capital GDP, yuan GDP energy consumption, urbanization rate, the proportion of the third industry five indicators on energy consumption of public buildings in hot summer and cold winter area significantly promoted.(3)By constructing a panel data model in hot summer and cold winter area,the influence degree of the resident population, per capita GDP, yuan GDP energy consumption, urbanization rate, the proportion of the third industry five indicators for empirical research.Using Panel Data Cointegration and panel data regression, the main draw the following conclusions:the resident population, per capita GDP, yuan GDP energy consumption, urbanization rate, the proportion of the third industry five indicators there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship of energy consumption of public buildings in hot summer and cold winter area.The influence coefficients were 1.33, 1.27, 0.42, 0.41,0.32,and the time effect and the annual value is increasing year by year.While the coefficient effect between the eight provinces and cities in hot summer and cold winter area of civil building energy consumption are very different.In view of the influence of different results in each province, respectively, the control of civil building energy consumption increases proposals for the eight provinces and cities in hot summer and cold winter area.(4)Combining with the panel data regression results, use the method of scene analysis,set the standard, optimistic, pessimistic three different scenes, the energy consumption of public buildings in hot summer and cold winter area were predicted, the prediction results pointed out:based on the existing level of social and economic development of the standard scenario, civil building energy consumption will reach 342000000 tons of standard coal,more than in 2013 about 30000000 tons of standard coal.Through comparing the optimistic and pessimistic scenario, the hot summer and cold winter area of civil building energy consumption and energy saving policies in different external pressure conditions there will be 40000000 tons of standard coal gap.This means that the scenario analysis results show that the hot summer and cold winter area of civil building energy consumption has a controllable space greatly, building energy conservation work will face more and morechallenges in the next five to ten years.