Research On The Effects Of Driving Violations On Crash Riskat Traffic Analysis Zone Level

Identifying the influencing factors of traffic accidents within the region and capturing the spatial development trend of traffic accidents is an important part of macro-traffic safety research.It can provide a basis for developing long-term planned policies of traffic safety improvement.The existing traffic safety research shows that traffic violations are one of the important causes of traffic accidents.Reducing the number of traffic violations can effectively reduce the incidence of traffic accidents.However,there are currently few studies analyzing the relationship between the two from the perspective of macro traffic safety.Based on the framework of macro traffic safety research,considering the macro-factors such as regional population economy,land use nature and road characteristics,this paper uses Hierarchical Bayesian conditional autoregressive model to study the spatial relationship between traffic accidents and types of traffic violations,and also the impact of the layout of traffic violation detectors on traffic accidents.Analysis of spatial characteristics of traffic accidents and traffic violations.This chapter uses the global spatial autocorrelation method to verify whether there is spatial autocorrelation in traffic accidents and traffic violation data in the study area.The results show that the spatial distribution of accident and violations data has certain aggregation characteristics and spatial positive correlation mode.This chapter uses the local spatial autocorrelation method to verify whether there is spatial heterogeneity in traffic accidents and traffic violation data.The results show that there are traffic analysis zones that are inconsistent with the overall spatial aggregation characteristics of traffic accidents and traffic violation data,and their spatial distribution has spatial heterogeneity in the study area.Research on spatial relation modeling between traffic accidents and traffic violations.Based on the framework of macro-traffic safety research,using hierarchical Bayesian conditional autoregressive model studies the spatial relationship between different levels of traffic accidents and different types of traffic violations.The result of severe accident modeling shows that: With the proportion of non-motorized vehicles not driving in non-motorized lanes,pedestrians violating traffic lights,motorized vehicles not driving in motorized lanes,motorized vehicles violating prohibited signs and marking instructions,and passenger vehicles carrying goods in violation of regulations increasing,the probability of serious accidents will increase.The result of general accident modeling shows that: With the proportion of non-motorized vehicles not passing according to traffic signal regulations,non-motorized vehicles not driving in non-motorized lanes,pedestrians violating traffic signal lights,motor vehicles violating prohibition signs and marking instructions,and motor vehicles violating road traffic signal lights increasing,the probability of general accidents will increase.Spatial modeling of the impact of traffic violations detector on traffic accidents.Modeling result shows that: Increasing the number of detector that motor vehicles violate road traffic lights and motor vehicles violate the prohibited marking indicator can reduce the number of traffic accidents.Especially when the proportion of commercial service facilities land and residential land is increased,increasing the number of detector that motor vehicles violating road traffic lights will play a more significant role in reducing the risk of traffic accidents.When the proportion of industrial land and main road is increased,increasing the number of detector that motor vehicles violate the prohibited marking indicator will play a more significant role in reducing the risk of traffic accidents.When the number of detector that motor vehicles violate road traffic lights is more in the area of commercial service facilities,it will gradually weaken the role of increasing the proportion of commercial service facilities land in enhancing the risk of traffic accidents.When the number of detector that motor vehicles violate road traffic lights is more in the residential area,the impact of the increasing of residential land on the risk of traffic accidents shows a downward trend.When the number of detector that motor vehicles violate the prohibited marking indicator is more in the industrial area,it will weaken the role of increasing the proportion of industrial land in enhancing the risk of traffic accidents.When the number of detector that changing lanes affects normal motor vehicles and motor vehicles violate the prohibited marking indicator is more,the impact of the increase of the proportion of main roads on the risk of traffic accidents shows a downward trend.The research results of this paper can help government management and transportation planning departments to understand the characteristics of regional traffic safety more deeply and thus provide an important basis for urban traffic safety planning,especially for the planning of intelligent transportation infrastructure(selection and layout of traffic violation detectors,etc.).