Research On Travel Modes Of Residents In Small And Medium-Sized Cities Based On Improved MNL Model

With the accelerating process of urbanization in China,the population of small and medium-sized cities began to gather and increase,and began to show the “siphon effect” of the population.Traffic congestion is becoming a more and more serious probelm.Because of its specific development situation and urban scope,small and medium-sized cities have their own characteristics of road system,transportation system and residents' travel characteristics.Therefore,studying the law of traffic travel in small and medium-sized cities plays an important role in promoting the development of small and medium-sized cities.Firstly,this paper takes the transportation mode of residents in small and medium-sized cities as the research object,deeply studies the Multinomial Logit Model(referred to as the MNL model),analyzes the characteristics of different modes of urban transportation,and considers the choice and will of residents in small and medium-sized cities under various factors.The appearance of the choice of psychological influence,improved the MNL model.Secondly,the paper introduces the traffic situation of Xiping County.The methods,contents,principles and implementation methods of this paper are expounded.The factors affecting the choice of residents' travel modes and the willingness to travel modes are analyzed,and these factors are compared from different angles.After the division and analysis,the improved MNL model is parameter-calibrated,and the characteristic influence variables are determine d to provide a basis for the selection of variables in the model.Then,through the combination of RP survey method and big data collection,the traffic travel data of Xiping County residents are collected and analyzed,and the residents' transportation mode selection model is calculated.Taking Xiping County as an example,the traffic mode prediction and optimization of Xiping County is used to describe the sensitivity of various types of residents in Xiping County to the controllable factors by controlling the influencing factors to the absolute value of the various modes of transportation.Finally,based on the classification of urban residents,the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters,hypothesis test and fitting data of the MNL model,and the calculation is solved by SAS software.According to the results of data analysis,the random utility theory was introduced to improve the MNL model of different types of residents in Xiping County.The corresponding optimization strategy was proposed for Xiping County traffic planning,and the road resource occupancy,energy consumption and exhaust emissions in Xiping County were optimized.