An Analysis Of The Potential For Cross-border Electricity Trade Between China And Countries Along The "The Belt And Road"

As the basis of the social development,energy plays an extremely important strategic position in the national economy.Although the demand for energy in economic development has become more and more vigorous,due to the increasing demand for environmental protection,the power trade has gradually become an important means for a country to optimize its energy structure.For China,it is imperative to promote cross-border power trade.First of all,China is a major electricity consumer and producer,but its power resources are unevenly distributed.The southwestern area of China has abundant hydropower resources,while northeast and north regions are seriously short of electricity,which makes China have to consider carrying out cross-border electricity trade to achieve balance between power supply and demand.China's existing cross-border power trade has stabilized,and the expansion of regional power trade network construction has become a crucial strategy.Therefore,in March 2015,Chinese government proposed the cooperation initiative of the “The Belt and Road”.The initiative focuses on promoting cross-border power grid and power interconnection in the “Belt and Road” region,and upgrading and upgrading the power infrastructure in the region to achieve optimal allocation of power resources within the region.Based on the above background,this paper uses the predictive model method to predict the power supply and demand gap in the countries along the “The Belt and Road”,and analyzes the potential of the key countries in the six regions along the “The Belt and Road” through the case study method.It wants to provide some more appropriate references for China expanding the power trade within this region.In addition to the introduction and literature review,the main text is discussed from the following aspects: The first part details the current status of power trade and interconnection,and conducts descriptive analysis for electricity trade from the three levels of global energy interconnection,global power trade and power trade in the regions of “The Belt and Road”.Meanwhile,based on the complex network model,this paper analyzes the Chinese cross-border power trade from 2008 to 2017.The second part is based on the 20-year power data from 1995 to 2015,and on the basis of forecasting model,to predict the electricity demand and domestic supply data of the countries along the “The Belt and Road” in 2020,2030 and 2035(some national data are missing).Moreover,in accordance with future data,this paper calculates power gap in these years,which means the potential for power trade for a country in the future.In the third part,through the establishment of a potential analysis framework for cross-border power trade,the countries with the largest gap of power supply and demand are selected in each region of “The Belt and Road” to deeply analyze.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)through the analysis of China's existing cross-border power trading network,this paper believes that in the China's existing cross-border power trading network from 2008 to 2017,the overall network structure has changed stably,network strength has continued to improve,and the order of this network has been constantly increasing.Although there is still some heterogeneity,the trend of heterogeneity has continued to decrease.(2)in the analysis of the potential of power trade development in countries along the “The Belt and Road”,by comparing the power consumption demand and the forecast data of domestic power supply in 2020,2030 and 2035,there are 21 countries with the gap of electricity supply and demand in the future.(3)this paper establishes an analysis framework based on the literatures that study the influence factors of the development in the power industry,and divides the countries of “The Belt and Road” according to geographic location into six regions.Based on the potential analysis framework,Cambodia,Nepal,Mongolia,Kyrgyzstan,Iraq and Hungary has greater potential for electricity trade in its region.Therefore,this paper will further advise China on expanding cross-border power trade from the aspects of policy,trade and investment.