| Based on the urban data and meteorological data from 1959 to 2015 of Anhui province,the climatic evolution,urbanization development process and rice production potential at various levels in Anhui province in the past 57 years were calculated and quantitatively analyzed in this study.According to the statistical theory and combined with actual data,the paper explored the driving forces and the driving mechanisms affecting rice growth in the process of climate change and urbanization,and selected the main climate and urbanization factors that affect the growth,development and production of rice in the regional area.The regression model of the evolution of the rice productivity under the dual drive of climate change and urbanization was constructed in Anhui province and the trend of rice productivity in the future is predicted based on the regression model.The comprehensive study on the basis of the results provides scientific decision-making basis for the sustainable,high-efficiency,high-quality production of rice and sustainable development in Anhui province,as well as provides empirical analysis of the effects of global climate change on human consumption.The main results are as follows:1.The average temperature,the average minimum temperature,and the mean maximum temperature during the whole year and the growing season of rice all showed a warming trend from 1959 to 2015 which all the temperature index have experienced the significant warming mutations in 1993.The mean daily minimum temperature for annual and the growing season of rice have all showed the largest increasing trend of 0.26 ?/10a and 0.21 ?/10a respectively,indicating that night temperature shows a stronger upward trend than day time temperature.The spatial distribution temperature presents a down trend from south to north all the year.After the warming mutation occurred in 1993,the temperature increases most strongly in the northern region with isotherm moving towards north about 11-200km.The spatial mode of the first EOF indicates the characteristics of the average temperature during the growing season of rice variation trending to uniformity for the whole area.The results of the wavelet analysis showed that the main oscillation period of the average temperature,the average minimum temperature and the average maximum temperature of the growing season of rice are 4-10a,25a and 10a respectively,and will continue to maintain the warming trend in the future cycle period.The precipitation in Anhui province has presented a vibration trend with slight uptrend from 1959 to 2015 throughout the whole year and the rice growing season.The Precipitation is abundant in southern Anhui of which the maximum precipitation for the whole year and the wet season can be reached to 1850mm and 1140mm respectively.The spatial variation of precipitation in rice growing season is globally consistent and the main oscillation period is 13a.The Angstrom formula was used to estimate global radiation from 1959 to 2015 of Anhui province and the estimated error kept fluctuating around 6%.It was found that the total solar radiation during the whole year and the rice growing season in Anhui province showed a significant downward trend from 1959 to 2015 by the rate of 119.18 MJ/m2/10a and 91.79MJ/m2/10a respectively.The spatial distribution of the global solar radiation presents a down trend from north to south and the radiant enrichment area is in Bozhou of which the maximum amount of radiation can be reached to 3360MJ/m2.The mutation of solar radiation reduction was occurred in 1979 and the total solar radiation during the rice growing season has decreased on average by 200MJ/m2 in Anhui province.The variation of solar radiation becomes stable after the year of 1979.The spatial variation of the total solar radiation in rice growing season is globally consistent and the main oscillation period is 30a.The variation of the solar radiation in Anhui province will continue to maintain the downward trend in the future cycle period.Comprehensively,Anhui province can be divided into one of the colder,drier and radiant climatic zone dominated by the Huaibei Plain and the Jinaghuai hilly region,and the other one of the warmer,wetter and less radiation zone dominated by the western and southern mountainous area in Anhui province and the plain along the Yangtze River in Anhui province.2.The potential photosynthetic production,the production potential of light and temperature and the climatic potential productivity of rice have all shown a significant downward trend since 1959 in Anhui province.The changes of these were declined by 4076.87kg/hm2?2947.84kg/hm2?2361.82kg/hm2 compared 2000s and 1960s.The spatial distribution of the potential photo synthetic production of rice gradually reduced from north to south and showed obvious decreased tend in northern Anhui province compared 2000s and 1960s.The spatial distribution of the production potential of light and temperature of rice gradually descended from the plain alone the Yangtze River to the northwest of Anhui province and showed obvious decreased trend in Bozhou.The spatial distribution of the climatic potential productivity of rice gradually descended from south to north and exhibited obvious decreased trend in the southwest of the Huaibei Plain compared 2000s and 1960s.The actual highest yield of rice can be reached to 7900kg/hm2 in north-east Anhui province while lowest is 6000kg/hm2 in the south-west Anhui province.The spatial distribution of the increasing potential of the photosynthetic production,the production of light and temperature and the climatic 1 productivity of rice all showed gradually increasing trend from north to south,and the increasing range of the yield are about 14800-18800 kg/hm2,12000-16400 kg/hm2 and 11000-15800 kg/hm2 respectively.3.The process of urbanization in Anhui can be divided into five stages of which are anti-urbanization,stagnation,recovery,steady development and accelerated development respectively.The high level of urbanization and human life,social and economic development,industrial structure transformation,urban expansion and agricultural science and technology level are the main driving force for urbanization development.According to the correlation analysis between the data of urbanization rate,rice planting area and the value of rice production potential to establish the rice production response under climate change and urbanization model of the whole area of Anhui in two time periods from 1959-1977 to 1978-2003,and the model during the period time from 2004 to 2015 is established in Anqing city and Huangshan city in Anhui province.According to the response characteristic of climate warming,urban development and rice production in Anhui province,authors suggests several measures,such as,modifying the crop boundaries and pattern properly,selecting crop varieties correctly,constructing farm irrigation facilities for irrigation of farmland,rational fertilization,scientific planning of land resource and promoting the popularization of agricultural weather index insurance,build the Agricultural IoT System and so on to make efforts for the sustainable development of agriculture in Anhui province. |
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