Study On Spatial-temporal Dynamic Change Of Cultivated Land Quantity And Driving Forces In Henan Province

In this paper,taking Henan province as an example,using as the research period 1996-2013,five different change measure models and principal component analysis and multiple regression analysis method are used,the analysis of temporal-spatial variation characteristics and the driving mechanism in Henan province,to provide support for the cultivated land use regulation mechanism and policy improvement.The results show that:(1)cultivated land in Henan province showed a downward trend,the decreased mostly resulted from construction land expansion and ecological cropland-conversion during 1996-2013.(2)The spatial difference of cultivated land quantity was relatively large in Henan province,therefore,from regional differences can be found,the higher the index of cultivated land location is and the smaller the relative change of cultivated land is,the smaller the cultivated land area index is and the relative change of cultivated land more obvious is.Reflects that the aggregation degree of regional cultivated land arable land influence of the relative changes.(3)The cultivated land gravity center and economic gravity southward migration,moving track contrary and relativity,which indicated that the development of economy and the reducing of the cultivated land were synchronous.(4)Through principal component analysis and regression analysis show that: on two stages,economic development?population growth?agricultural science?technology progress and policy impact of cultivated land change,but the economic development is the main driving force of the change of cultivated land in Henan province during 1996-2013.(5)So,we should be based on the above characteristics of cultivated land change and its correlation with social and economic development to put forward reasonable suggestions and measure for cultivated land protection.