| Thaumatotibia leucotreta(Meyrick,1913)is a worldwide quarantine pest which has led to billions of dollars in damage in many countries because of its wild host species and wide geographic distribution.After China’s upcoming accession to WTO,Along with the global economics integration acceleration,The amount of domestic and overseas products increased gradually,especially the the amount of import products from most affected countries,so that the risk of the entry of the epidemic is also expanding.In recent years,T.leucotreta has been intercepted in our country’s ports for many times,if the pest colonization,transmission,or spread in our country,it will bring huge economy loss to cash crops.Therefore,predicting of its potential distribution,evaluating its risks,and putting forward specific plans for corresponding management have very important theoretical value for the implementation of plant quarantine pest measure.In this paper,combined with widely collecting data,the research and analysis of the T.leucotreta biology,ecology characteristics was carried on,and this pest’s potential distribution in China was predicted using software of CLIMEX1.0 and ArcGIS10.2 the.Risk assessment of T.leucotreta was conducted from the two points of view,the likelihood and consequences of introduction by expert system and comprehensive evaluation index system.The main conclusions are as follows:1.The analysis by software of CLIMEX1.0 and ArcGIS10.2 shows that the geographical distribution of T.leucotreta may be suitable in the southern region in our country.The suitable area in China is about 187 million square kilometers,which accounting for 19%of the land area of China.The result presented the high-risk of potential distribution at most part of Yunnan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Fujian,southern Zhejiang,as well as all areas of these provinces to the south.Moderate suitable area and low-grade suitable area distribution are relativity small.2.According to PRA quantitative analysis evaluation index system,we obtained that the risk value of T.leucotreta is 2.36 in China.It is a highly risk pest that the risk value greater than 2.0.The risk management strategy for China was discussed to prevent the pest introduction,dissemination and spread. |
