The Analysis Of Cultivated Land Changes And Their Driving Factors In Shandong Province

In the beginning the study is focused on the state of developments of cultivated land, population, gross domestic product, and national income and so on in Shandong Province after liberation. According to owned data, the author studied the changes of cultivated land quantities and driving factors from 1952-1959 .The methods used in the study are known as clustering analysis, principal component analysis with the tool of SAS. Firstly, according to average linkage method, the centroid method and principal component analysis, the time from 1952 to 1993 was divided into five periods: 1952-1959,1960-1967, 1968-1981, 1982-1987 and 1988-1993. Then utilizing principal component analysis, the author analyzed the data of each period and concluded that the first and second principal component's accumulative proportion is more than 85 percent. Therefore, it is shown that the first and second principal component basically contains all the information in the quota above. Indexes of the first and second principal component can be calculated according to their eigenvectors, so driving factors of each period can be indicated.In this paper the change of cultivated land spatial characteristics of Shandong Province is studied on the basis of the land use maps of 1985 and 1998 using mapgis6.0. The author modified the two graphs into vector graphs by screen digitization. All the geographical coordinates are turned into 80 national united coordinates which were taken as their academic values to correct the land use maps, and the coordinates of all the maps are turned into the united coordinates after correction. Finally, by spatial analysis, a changes map of land use from 1985 to 1998 can be obtained. The author made careful study on the influence factors of the changes of cultivated land according to their characteristics in spatial contribution. Based on all the studies, the author can get some conclusions, firstly driving factors are different with the different periods, secondly changes of cultivated land in Shandong Province are consistent with the maximum economic profit, thirdly they are limited by the complex terrain and the character of land use and we can get some areas they are more sensitive and more worth being studied. These findings are profound for further research on the promotion of cultivated land, in addition to its relation with economic development in Shandong Province.