Ecological And Economic Analyses Of The Forest Metabolism System

Forest resources have great environmental and economic value.They play an important role in the development of ecology,economy and society.While the environmental value of forest resources is concerned,the flow and utilization of forest resources in economic development also needs attention.It is essential for solving increasingly scarce forest resources to incorporate forest resources into the social and economic system reasonably.In this paper,the input-output method and the ecological network method are combined to establish the forest resource input-output model and the forest resource metabolic network model.Taking timber as an ecological element and Guangdong Province as an example,the feasibility of the model was verified to solve the real problem.First,the forest resource input-output model was used to establish indicators including timber dependence degree,timber value-added dependence degree and timber output coefficient.The utility of the timber use and the input-output status in various sectors of Guangdong Province in 2012 were evaluated.The results showed that the second industry has the most timber consumption.Many sectors of the primary manufacturing industry consume timber directly,while advanced manufacturing industry and tertiary industry use timber indirectly.The sector with more demand for timber resources per unit of output value is also at the forefront of the value added created by the timber use.Secondly,the forest resource metabolic network model is used to establish indicators including timber flow,timber occupancy ratio,driving factor,pulling factor,utility analysis,ecological relationship,mutualism index and system robustness.The flow relationships of forest resources among sectors,industries and system of Guangdong Province from 1987 to 2015 were dynamically described.The results indicated that the internal transfer rate in the timber sector has increased significantly after 2000.The timber processing and furniture manufacturing sector was the biggest starting point of timber flow,and it has been actively interacting with other sectors such as services,construction and metal manufacturing sectors in different periods.The timber occupancy ratio varies in different sectors over the years.It has gradually increased in the primary manufacturing industry,has been relatively stable in the advanced manufacturing industry and has shown a downward trend in many sectors such as agriculture,mining,construction and other service industries.Over time,the key sectors driving timber flows have shifted from other services,construction and other manufacturing industries to metal manufacturing and electronics and electrical manufacturing.The symbiotic index reached the health line only in 1995 and 2012 indicating that the other years were in a sub-health state.The average mutual information showed an upward trend while the residual uncertainty showed a downward trend.The system’s order and efficiency improved and the redundancy decreased.However,the system has been in low efficiency and high redundancy over the years.Finally,the forest resource metabolism in Guangdong Province in 2020 was simulated by combining the RAS method.It was expected that the internal timber transfer rate of Guangdong Province would increase in 2020.The timber processing and furniture manufacturing sector would continue to maintain a positive interaction with many sectors(e.g,the construction,papermaking,other manufacturing and metal manufacturing sectors).The timber occupancy ratio of primary manufacturing and agriculture would increase,while the ratio in many sectors(e.g.,the advanced manufacturing,mining,energy supply,construction and other service industries)would decrease.The ecological relationship between mining industry and metal manufacturing industry would in good condition,but the ecological relationship between construction industry and electrical and electronic manufacturing industry would not optimistic.The overall system would still in a sub-health state and exhibited low efficiency and high redundancy performance.