Response Of Stocking Rate To Livelihood Risk In Inner Mongolia Grassland

As the largest terrestrial ecosystem,grasslands are currently in a state of degradation to varying degrees.Overgrazing is the direct and primary cause of grassland degradation.Livelihood risks are an important source of uncertainty for herders'livestock production and life.The occurrence of risks increases the vulnerability of herder families.This study introduces the theory of precautionary saving,using the data collected from 450 herders in six counties of Inner Mongolia's main ecological areas.The study considers the distribution of stocking rate of herders'grassland,compares the overstocking rate by herders across the different ecosystems in the study region,and preliminarily verify the precautionary saving behavior of herders from different dimensions.Also,the risk assessment system of was established.On this basis,the relationship between livelihood risk factors and stocking rate of herdsmen is explored,and the preventive saving behavior of herdsmen is verified again.Combined with the econometric model,the key risk indexes that affect the change of the stocking rate of herdsmen's grassland are clarified,and the internal mechanism that the risk affects the stocking rate of herdsmen's Grassland is revealed,and finally put forward targeted policy suggestions based on the research conclusions.The main results are as follows:(1)The stocking rate in the meadow grassland,typical grassland and desert grassland were 0.74 sheep unit/hm~2,0.76 sheep unit/hm~2 and 0.30 sheep unit/hm~2,respectively based on the reduction of hay.Among them,the stocking rates of meadow grassland decreased by 35.09%,typical grassland decreased by 23.23%,and desert grassland decreased by 31.82%.Moreover,according to the second round of grassland supplement policy,the balance of grass and livestock was reduced According to the standard,the stocking rate of herdsmen grassland in desert grassland and typical grassland is over grazing,and the degree of over grazing is desert grassland area>typical grassland area.The mental stocking rate of herdsmen in the three types of grassland was 0.81 sheep unit/hm~2,0.86 sheep unit/hm~2 and 0.66 sheep unit/hm~2,respectively,which showed that it was higher than the actual stocking rate of herdsmen.(2)Based on the comparative analysis of the stocking rate of herdsmen of different resource types and the study of the stocking rate of herdsmen from the angle of Engel index,the results show that the greater the uncertainty faced by herdsmen in production and life,the higher the comprehensive risk value,the more herdsmen tend to reserve"property"livestock in a conservative way,which conforms to the precautionary saving theory.(3)There are differences in the total index of livelihood risk of herdsmen in different grassland types,and the indexes of livelihood risk faced by herdsmen are different.The three types of grassland have the highest market risk index,the lowest life risk index of meadow grassland and typical grassland,and the lowest natural risk index of desert grassland,and the highest policy risk index of typical grassland,followed by meadow grassland and desert grassland.(4)Based on the influence of different livelihood risk factors in different regions on the stocking rate of herdsmen,the applicability of the precautionary saving theory is reasonable.The proportion of ecological protection subsidy to the total income of herdsman households has a significant negative impact on the change of grassland stocking rate of herdsman;whether the market information is obtained in time has a significant positive impact on the dynamic change of stocking rate;whether the annual loss of livestock and the impact of snow disaster have a significant positive impact on the change of stocking rate of herdsman;the number of family labor force and the variables of per capita medical and education expenditure have a stable positive significant impact on the change of stocking rate of herdsmen.However,whether there is pressure to repay the loan or not has a significant negative impact on the grassland stocking rate of herdsmen at the 10%statistical level.