Effects Of Meteorological Factors On Flue-cured Tobacco Production In Ji Dong

Flue-cured tobacco is one of the main cash crops in Jidong.Five of the 11 townships under the jurisdiction of Jidong have cultivated flue-cured tobacco.The cultivated area of flue-cured tobacco is 11960 mu,accounting for 1.5%of the cultivated area of the whole county,with an average annual output value of 35 million yuan.Based on the data of flue-cured tobacco phenological factors,meteorological disasters and flue-cured tobacco yield in Jidong in recent 10 years,this study discussed the correlation between flue-cured tobacco yield and meteorological factors through statistics and analysis,in order to provide reference for tobacco farmers and relevant scientific and technological personnel in agriculture and meteorology in guaranteeing flue-cured tobacco production.The results show that:The average annual meteorological factors have an increasing trend.According to the changing trend of meteorological factors in each phenological period,the average temperature and sunshine hours in the transplanting period showed a decreasing trend,while the precipitation in the transplanting period showed an increasing trend.The average temperature and sunshine duration in the growing period were stable.Precipitation in the growing period decreased by 4.3mm per year.The average temperature in the harvesting period decreases with a trend of 0.1? per year,and the annual fluctuation is relatively large.The average precipitation in the harvesting period increases with a trend of 10mm per year,and the sunshine hours in the harvesting period change steadily.From 2009 to 2018,both the planting area and the annual output of flue-cured tobacco showed a decreasing trend,and the single output of flue-cured tobacco was generally flat,but there were small fluctuations between years.The influence of meteorological factors on the yield of flue-cured tobacco was different in each phenological period.The change of precipitation in the growing period and harvest period had a greater influence on the yield per unit area of flue-cured tobacco,while the change of temperature,sunshine duration,precipitation in seedling period and precipitation in transplanting period had little influence on the yield per unit area of flue-cured tobacco.The annual meteorological factors also had different influences on flue-cured tobacco yield.Annual precipitation had the greatest influence on flue-cured tobacco yield per unit area,followed by annual sunshine hours,and annual average temperature had the weakest influence.The annual precipitation had the greatest influence on the annual yield of flue-cured tobacco,followed by the annual sunshine hours,and the annual average temperature.Disastrous weather had different degrees of influence on flue-cured tobacco yield,flood disaster had the greatest influence on flue-cured tobacco yield,and the yield of flue-cured tobacco was reduced in the year of flood.The influence of rainstorm disaster on flue-cured tobacco production was followed by 71%years with rainstorm and 100%years with two rainstorm.The effects of hail disaster on flue-cured tobacco yield were again as follows:67%of the years had heavy rain and 100%of the years had two hail disasters.According to the comprehensive analysis of the above three disasters,when the disasters of rainstorm,flood and hail occurred simultaneously,flue-cured tobacco production decreased.the possible economic losses caused by natural disasters.Therefore,it is suggested that:(1)establish and constantly improve the early warning and prediction system.(2)strengthen flue-cured tobacco disaster prevention and reduction research,improve the ability to protect,especially to do a good job in hail and storm flood prevention measures.(3)strengthen weather modification.