Associations Of Dynamic Changes In Total Cholesterol,Triglyceride With Metabolic Syndrome

Objective: This study investigated the association between baseline levels and longitudinal changes in total cholesterol(TC)and triglyceride(TG)levels with the incidence of metabolic syndrome(MetS)based on Joint Model with data from a 7-year dynamic health examination cohort,had future discussion the strategies of the early prevention and control of MetS.Methods: Data from a third-grade hospital in Dalian between 2010 and 2016 were used,including physical examination(height,weight and blood pressure),biochemical indicators(TC,TG,fasting blood glucose,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels,etc.)and medical history,etc.Used Excel to establish a database of 7-year dynamic physical examination.We used SPSS 22.0 to describe the basic information of the data.All qualitative data were presented as percentile and were compared by chi-squared test;all quantitative data were expressed by mean ± standard deviation(x ± s)for variables with normal distribution and were compared by t test;all quantitative data were presented as median(range)for variables without normal distribution and were compared by rank sum test.Cox model and Joint Model were respectively established using the R Programming Language,selected the optimal model according to the AIC rule,and analyzed the correlation between baseline levels and changes of TC and LNTG with MetS according to the results.Results: Initially,there were 10,858 participants,according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,a total of 4,504 members aged 19~80 years old were recruited,including 1,500 males(33.30%)(incidence: 30.33%,incidence density: 14.30/100person-years)and 3,004 females(66.70%)(incidence: 12.68%,incidence density:4.74/100 person-year).During the seven-year follow-up period,836 subjects developed MetS.The incidence of MetS was 18.56%,and men was 30.33% which was higher than women 12.68%(c2=206.184,P=0.000),the incidence in men was gradually increased with age,but women before the age of 50 was with small fluctuations and significantly increased after 50 years old.The results of the general Cox model showed that the risk of MetS increased 1.140 times(95% CI: 1.053,1.235)for each additional unit of TC0;the risk of MetS increased 3.024 times(95% CI: 2.584,3.539)for each additional unit of LNTG0.The results of Joint Model showed that the risk of MetS increased 1.212times(95% CI: 1.091,1.346)for each additional unit of TC in longitudinal;the risk of MetS increased 6.687 times(95% CI: 5.076,8.811)for each additional unit of LNTG in longitudinal.Conclusion: 1.The increase of TC and LNTG levels in longitudinal increased the risk of MetS.Even if the TC and LNTG level increased within the normal range,it would increase the risk of MetS.2.Healthy people should take part in health check-up regularly to monitor their physical indexes.The study results highlight that we should pay more attention to the change of TG in youngers and the change of TC or TG in older females,so as to reduce and prevent the incidence risk of MetS effectively.