Study On The Temporal And Spatial Distribution Characteristics Of Human Brucellosis And Its Natural Environmental Factors In Ningxia

Objective Clarify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Ningxia,explore its temporal change and the aggregation of spatial distribution,analyze the correlation between incidence and the number of livestock stocks,and natural environment,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the development of brucellosis prevention and control strategies according to local conditions in Ningxia.Methods From 2007 to 2017,the incidence data of brucellosis monitoring came from the Report information management system of infectious diseases in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,and the data related to natural environmental factors and the number of livestock stocks came from Ningxia statistical yearbook.The county unit was taken as the spatial unit.The ARIMA model was constructed with SPSS23.0 software,and the optimal model was selected to predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis from January 2019 to December 2020.Trend analysis,center of gravity migration analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial-temporal scanning analysis were used to analyze the spatial distribution and spatial aggregation of brucellosis in Ningxia,and ArcGIS software was used for data visualization.Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the number of livestock and the incidence of brucellosis.The generalized linear models was used to determine the main natural environmental factors of impact.Results 1.In terms of time distribution,brucellosis in Ningxia showed seasonal characteristics,and the peak of the disease mainly occurred from march to July each year,with the highest incidence in May.The prediction results of the ARIMA?0,1,0??1,1,0?₁₂2 model show that the incidence in Ningxia province from January 2019 to December 2020 increases slowly with the passage of time.2.In terms of spatial distribution,from 2007 to 2017,the incidence of brucellosis in the Ningxia province was generally higher in the east and lower in the west,and higher in the middle.The analysis of center of gravity migration found that in 2007,the center of gravity was located in Yongning county,and moved to Hongsipu district after 2008.The autocorrelation results showed that there was a global autocorrelation in Ningxia in 2012,2013 and 2016.Moran's I values were 0.308533,0.281359 and 0.149646,respectively,and Z values were all greater than 1.96?all P<0.05?,Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the“High-High”clusters in 2012 were located in Hongsipu District and Tongxin County,while the“Low-Low”clusters were located in Jingyuan County,Huinong County,Pingluo County,and Helan County.In 2013,the"High-High"gathering area was located in Tongxin County,and the"Low-Low"gathering area was located in Jingyuan County,Pingluo County,and Helan County.In 2016,there were only four“Low-Low”cluster areas:Pingluo County,Helan County,Xixia District,and Jinfeng District.Spatial-temporal scanning analysis showed that brucellosis in Ningxia had a temporal and spatial aggregation,which was concentrated in March to August of each year,and wuzhong city of Ningxia was its geographical aggregation area.3.Spearman correlation analysis found that the incidence of human brucellosis increased with the increase in the number of sheep.According to the generalized linear models,average temperature,wind speed,forest area and grassland area were determined to be the main natural environmental factors affecting the incidence of brucellosis.Conclusions1.According to the prediction of the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Ningxia from 2019 to 2020,we should continue to strengthen our vigilance against brucellosis in Ningxia.During the spring and summer livestock breeding season?March-July?,when the incidence of disease is relatively high,health publicity and education for farmers and herdsmen should be strengthened.During lambing and other activities,protective facilities such as gloves,masks and goggles should be worn.2.Ningxia has been relatively stable in areas with high incidence of brucellosis in recent years.The"High-High"accumulation area is located in the eastern part of central Ningxia.The most likely space-time accumulation area is located in Yanchi County with a radius of 100.93km.January 1,2013-December31,2017.The"High-High"clustering area obtained from the spatial autocorrelation analysis and the first-level clustering area obtained from the spatiotemporal scan are the areas with high incidence of Ningxia brucellosis.The conclusions obtained by the two methods are basically the same.For such areas with high incidence of brucellosis,the local epidemic prevention department should pay great attention to it,strengthen the epidemic prevention force,increase the vaccination rate,increase publicity,and raise the awareness of local farmers and herdsmen against brucellosis.3.The incidence of human brucellosis in Ningxia increased with the increase in the number of sheep,the average temperature,wind speed,forest area and grassland area are the main natural environmental factors affecting the incidence of brucellosis.When the natural environmental conditions cannot be changed,strengthening the management of the herd is one of the more effective methods.