An Analysis On Rationality Of Inductive Reasoning Based On The Development Of Decision Theory

Inductive logic is an important tools for human to judge and infer,nowadays inductive logic not only become the research subject of logic,but also got widely applied in the fields of social science and nature science.The feature of inductive inference that infer general from individual plays important roles in the science discover,but the problem of induction makes people doubt the rationality of inductive inference.People have to understand the problem of induction correctly,so that they can make better use of inductive inference.This thesis tried to help people to understand the problem of induction correctly by analyzing the decision theories and it's development process.In the first and second chapters,this thesis introduced some knowledge of introductive logic and the research status of decision theories,in the third chapters,this thesis introduced normative research of decision theories by the example of Bayesian Decision Theory,and then pointed out the problem of normative research,in the fourth chapter,about above problem,thesis introduced the descriptive research,and pointed that although people's actual decision didn't follow the expectation of the normative research theory with the limited rationality,but this decision behaviors were still plausible because of convenience and the scope of application,in the fifth chapter,this thesis offered a descriptive justification and some advice about how to use introductive logic correctly through comparing the normative theories and descriptive theories.