A Prediction Research On Sequels' Demand Diffusion

China's movie market is in a period of rapid development.With the gradual maturation of the film industry,sequel films have received more and more attention from the market.But the demand modes of different sequel films are not the same.In recent years,sequel films have not only about five billion successful works like "wolf 2",but also failed works such as "Taiping wheel".Facing sequel film products of uneven quality,discovering the mechanism of demand formation and more accurately predicting the law of demand spread,assessing investment risks for film investors and developing different plans for different sequel films to maximize cinemas The benefits are of important practical significance.At the same time,the multi generation diffusion model in the theoretical study mainly considers the substitution effect,and there is a brand spillover effect between the sequel film and the mother film,but there is no substitution effect.The existing multi generation diffusion model is difficult to apply to the sequel film,and further research is needed.Therefore,for studying Sequel Movie demand diffusion mechanism and its demand diffusion mathematical model,it is of great significance in theory and reality.This article intends to address the existing problems and theoretical deficiencies mentioned above.In combination with existing research,it first explores the formation mechanism of sequel film demand diffusion,and finally obtains a sequel film demand diffusion prediction model through this mechanism.this article uses the sequel movie as the research object for the following work:(1)Based on the brand spillover effect,the influencing factors and forecasting requirements of the sequels before the release of the film are combined,and a three-stage adoption process of the sequel movie is constructed based on the demand-diffusion multi-stage process model to target the purchase behavior of individual consumers,and the three-stage process is extended to Consumer groups get the three-stage demand diffusion process of sequel movies,and finally get the formation mechanism of sequel film demand diffusion.(2)Aiming at the formation mechanism of the sequel movie demand diffusion,the idea of constructing the sequel film demand diffusion model has been established.According to the model thinking,first consider the mother film brand spillover effect to construct a sequel film positive perception group mathematical model;secondly consider the process of market expansion and actively perceive the transformation process of the group to potential adopters;obtain the sequel film market potential mathematical model;add the seasonal again An improved Bass model of the dynamic seasonal coefficient is constructed by the fluctuation factors;finally,the mathematical model of the sequel demand diffusion prediction is combined with the above three mathematical models.(3)The model was validated by selecting the sequel movie related data released in China from 2011 to 2016,and compared with the comparison model Marshall model and SBM.The results show that 1)the brand spillover effect of the mother film,the feature gap between the two generations of the film and the market expansion significantly affect the market potential of the sequel;2)there is a significant seasonal fluctuation in the film demand diffusion process;3)the goodness of fit of the model under construction both accuracy and prediction accuracy are better than the two comparison models,with stronger applicability.Therefore,the conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1)The improved Bass model built in this paper can better reflect the actual situation of sequel film demand diffusion;2)The sequel film demand diffusion mechanism obtained in this paper and the sequel film demand forecasting model that incorporates the Bass model and the three-stage model.It is suitable for predicting the diffusion of demand for sequels;3)This article extends the research object to multi-generational short-lived experience products that do not have substitution effects.It takes into account multi-generation product brand spillover effects and supplements existing multi-generation diffusion models.