Research On Value Evaluation Of Film&TV Enterprises

In recent years,the film and television industry has developed rapidly.In the capital market,mergers and acquisitions,investment and financing activities of film and television enterprises are increasingly active.It is particularly critical to find appropriate evaluation methods to accurately evaluate the value of such enterprises.According to the 2017 major asset reorganization report of listed companies,about 75%of the appraisal methods adopted by the target companies of major asset reorganization adopt the income method.And in the theoretical circle,in the film and television industry evaluation method,also think that the income method is the appropriate evaluation method.However,due to the obvious "asset-light nature" of film and television companies and the large uncertainty of earnings,the traditional earnings method ignores the impact of uncertainty factors on enterprise value and cannot reasonably evaluate the enterprise value of film and television industry.Therefore,the problem of this paper is how to improve the application of traditional revenue method in the film and television industry,and then reasonably evaluate the enterprise value of the film and television industry.The research idea of this paper is as follows:On the basis of the theoretical research on enterprise value assessment at home and abroad and the methods of enterprise value assessment in the film and television industry,this paper combines the status quo statistics of the evaluation of film and television industry in practice to obtain the evaluation methods currently used in China.Combined with the characteristics of huanrui century and film and television enterprises,the difficulties and applicability of evaluation methods are analyzed.Then the monte carlo simulation technology is introduced into the traditional revenue method,the sensitivity analysis is combined with the monte carlo simulation technology,and the improved free cash flow model is proposedThe improved model is used to analyze the rationality of film and television industry.Finally,through case analysis,the applicability of monte carlo simulation technology in the enterprise value assessment of the film and television industry is further demonstrated,providing a new idea for the overall value assessment of the same type of companies.The research features of this paper are as follows:(1)The expected revenue of film and television enterprises is unstable.Under the basic situation of the parameter uncertainty of the revenue method model,monte carlo simulation method is applied to solve the uncertainty problem and sensitively deal with the key parameters of free cash flow.The random variables of monte carlo simulation are determined from the technical method.(2)A combination of probability and interval form is proposed for interval description based on uncertainty evaluation,and a new template for expression of evaluation conclusion is given.In this paper,the study found that:(1)The theoretical study of the assessment income method is considered to be more reasonable evaluation methods,practice for film and television industry enterprise value evaluation methods are mainly adopts income method,when the enterprise future earnings is difficult to forecast earnings or negative,will usually choose assets based method to evaluate or marketing;(2)The improved free cash flow discount model based on monte carlo simulation transforms the process of enterprise value evaluation from static "point" evaluation to dynamic"interval" evaluation.(3)Reasonable description of interval estimation is necessary.There is uncertainty in the process of asset evaluation,whether it is the uncertainty of model parameters or the unccertainty of human factors,and such information contained in "point" estimation is insufficient.Therefore,it is necessary to describe the information contained in interval estimation.