The Study Of Plausible Reasoning

Evidential reasoning is an important part of the science of evidence,the object of which is the process of rational proof.In the process of evidence inference,we try to draw the conclusion from the premise of evidence.This process will be used in various types of reasoning,the plausible reasoning is very important.In recent years,China's courts have corrected a number of Criminal Misjudged Cases,and the causes of these cases are evidence and facts.From the point of view of legal logic,the result of legal reasoning is reasonable,the key lies in the confirmation of the facts of the case through the analysis of evidence,that is,the process of evidence inference can be established.To ensure the rationality of evidence inference results,the judicial personnel must pay attention to the understanding and use of plausible reasoning.The judicial proof is a kind of retrospective cognition process,we use the existing evidence to analyze the facts that happened in the past.The reasoning process of the evidence to the fact is a kind of probability reasoning,which is from the premise of the evidence to the conclusion of plausible results,this is the use of plausible reasoning.It is able to transfer the evidence of a small part of the evidence to the conclusion,so that the conclusions have a certain degree of persuasion.When the case is based on evidence that many of these arguments are made,the evidence that they are added together is very prominent.Research on plausible reasoning has always been the focus of attention in the American countries,very early when scientists began to study the application of plausible reasoning.For example,the abductive reasoning method is used in the medical diagnosis system,used to get the patient's illness.However,from the research on the current situation of our country,plausible reasoning theory does not systematically.In its history,mode,application value,evaluation methods and other aspects of the research is not enough.The lack of theoretical guidance of judicial practice in plausible reasoning is easy to appear the problem.Therefore need to deepen the plausible reasoning,provide scientific evidence for the logic analysis and the facts.Theoretical research on plausible reasoning in the American countries,especially Walton and Polya's theory has important reference significance for perfecting the plausible reasoning system.To launch the facts from the evidence,the focus lies in the analysis of the evidence to prove the facts.Traditionally,the judge has the power to prove the evidence through inner conviction.How far is the evidence from the fact that it has been a topic of continuous exploration in the law of evidence.new evidence law school put forward the use of probability theory to prove the strength of evidence to make scientific mathematical analysis and formula operation.The core of this method is to use Bayesian formula to prove the probative force of evidence through the method of likelihood ratio,and help solve the problem of fact finding.It can be said that the probability theory provides a logical way of thinking for the judicial proof,which is helpful to improve the accuracy and reliability of the fact finding,so as to obtain a more impartial verdict.The main body of this paper is divided into four parts: The first part mainly studies the value of plausible reasoning proof,that is the study of what is the meaning of plausible reasoning.Based on the analysis of the Criminal Misjudged Cases,this paper draws the conclusion that the main reason for the presumption of guilt and the occurrence of misjudged cases is evidence.This paper focuses on the issue of evidence in evidence inference problems,and put forward the judicial personnel must pay attention to the evidence reasoning in the understanding and use of plausible reasoning.Plausible reasoning plays an important role in the judicial practice,this article gives a specific description of the procedure of criminal investigation and criminal trial procedure.The second part elaborates the basic theory of plausible reasoning,including the concept of plausible reasoning,plausible reasoning of the characteristics and development history.Plausible reasoning is different from deductive reasoning and inductive inference,reasoning forms its concept can be expressed as the plausible conclusion from the premise.The history of the development of plausible reasoning can be traced back to ancient Greece,after a long period of time has been ignored in traditional logicians,until the development of modern logic,which makes the re emergence of plausible reasoning in our field of vision,and rapid development.The characteristics of plausible reasoning has four aspects: one is plausible reasoning is based on the common knowledge;two is a plausible reasoning conclusion has plausibility;three is plausible reasoning is non monotonic;four is plausible reasoning is defeasible.The third part mainly analyzes the typical patterns of plausible reasoning,and scientific evaluation method of plausible reasoning is proposed.First elaborated the plausible reasoning proposed by Polya model,including inductive inverse model,analogical reasoning model and abductive reasoning model,combined with the specific case analysis.Then,we use The best explanation theory to explain how the evidence acts on the facts,and Probability theory is used to analyze the probative force of evidence.The fourth part is about the use of plausible reasoning in judicial practice.Analysis of the United States Supreme Court of criminal homicide cases,detailed description of the plausible reasoning in the case of the fact finding is how to play a role.To strengthen the research of plausible reasoning can help to improve our system of evidence theory,evidence to build solid facts bridge,provide rational support for judicial judgment.