Plausible Reasoning And Crime Investigation

In the investigation of practice, investigators need to use all kinds of reasoning methods, and use all kinds of information obtained by the senses, and analyzing, comprehending and comparing, then make a best judgment. For cases detective speaking, how to find the path to a case of truth thinking way from various unruly clues, the key lies in investigators can carry on the correct logic reasoning. Plausible reasoning is to explore the rule and discover truth effective means, it is a natural science field and rounded argument reasoning (analysis inference) completely different a reasoning methods. This paper aims to research plausible reasoning theory and its practical application in investigation, in order to promote domestic relevant investigation reasoning theory research further forward, and to provide some beneficial investigation practice of contribution. The research of plausible reasoning theories into practice in investigation has very important theoretical and practical significance. The relevant domestic related research achievements of the plausible reasoning mainly concentrated in mathematics and classroom teaching field. So far, trying to make plausible reasoning and crime investigation combined studying is belong to the journey of exploration. Therefore, this interdisciplinary exploratory research not only has important theoretical significance, but also more with theoretical innovative sense. And for investigation of cases practice speaking, the plausible reasoning study not only helps us to correctly understand the process of investigation thinking, but also to enhance the investigator's logic level and accurately cracked crime has important theoretical significance.This paper except quotes is divided into four parts altogether.First part: studying of origin and development of plausible reasoning.This section use the method of longitudinal to study theory plausible reasoning explored. At the beginning trace back to the plausible reasoning source theory– Peirce's hypothesis inference. Based on this, it advance the Hansen's "Discovery Mode" (i.e., Abduction) and the inference to the best explanation of Harman and Lipton, and then briefly summarizes the Polya's plausible reasoning from reasoning features, reasoning and manifestation aspect.Part two: The form of expression of plausible reasoning.From the microcosmic angle on the extension of plausible reasoning make an attempt of induction and expounds. The form of expression of plausible reasoning has five aspects: first is the basic inductive mode and its extension, and the second is the analogic reasoning, and the third is the comparison reasoning, and the fourth is abduction, and the fifth is various concrete of enological thinking including observation and experiment, experience, imagination, associate and intuition.Part three: the necessity and possibility in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation.This section is the core content of the papers, but also the paper foothold and end-result. On the basis of resuming the procedural models of thinking process in investigation practice activity analysis the formation process of the plausible reasoning from the macroscopic angle, and then explore the formation process of plausible reasoning in crime investigation. Explaining the plausible reasoning has effective means to explore the criminal case occurrence regularity and to find the criminals truth, and the necessity in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation of investigators. Then, the article expound the possibility in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation comprehensive four steps: first is the field exploration and case analysis, and the second is from associate to analogy, and the third is the experience summarizing, and the fourth is plausible reasoning from the macroscopic angle.Part four: the typical model in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation-- with criminal cases of Caravz for sample. From the angle of investigation practice, this section expands the content of the second and the third part. It carry on a more detailed elaboration, in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation, in dissecting a"sparrow"-- to analyze a typical case with criminal cases of Richard Caravz for sample.Part five: significances and requirements in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation.It has the important theoretical and practical significance in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation. But because the probability of the conclusion of plausible reasoning, in order to make plausible reasoning in investigation practice by conclusion constantly reaching the case facts, it must follow the certain logic requires in applying the plausible reasoning to crime investigation, thus improve the reliability standard of the conclusion.