| The North Korean nuclear issue has been a hot issue affecting the international political nerves in recent years.It has so far been pending.The emergence of the North Korean nuclear issue has very profound historical reasons,and the peaceful settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue is undoubtedly the greatest hope in history.In order to peacefully solve the North Korean nuclear issue,timely and effective dialogue,communication and negotiation must be conducted.All of these require a platform that can be accepted by stakeholders.Six-Party Talks were born in this context.Since the first round of Six-Party Talks on the Korean nuclear issue was held from August 27 to 29,2003,the Six-Party Talks has become a place for all parties to the talks to contact each other,explore each other and understand each other,especially for the parties during the North Korean nuclear crisis,especially the selection and actions of the United States and the DPRK,there is a lot of room for maneuvering.It has played a very obvious positive role in mitigating the Korean nuclear crisis.By September 30,2007,six rounds of six-party talks have been held.The process of the talks can be described as mixed and full of twists and turns.Although it failed to complete the task of peacefully resolving the DPRK nuclear issue,the resumption of negotiations is still out of sight and even considered to have existed in name only,through these six rounds of Six-Party Talks on the Korean nuclear issue,we can clearly see the core concerns and goals of China,Russia,the United States,Japan,North Korea and South Korea.In particular,the bilateral talks between the United States and North Korea interspersed in the Six-Party Talks have provided us with an opportunity to observe the contest between United States and the DPRX.This is very valuable.Because the DPRK nuclear issue is ultimately a matter of the United States and the DPRK,but the special historical reasons and the relational environment in Northeast Asia have caused the United States and North Korea not to be in direct contact,only can it seek to resolve in multilateral negotiations.China has assumed the responsibility of building a negotiating platform and promoted the development of the three-party talks between China,the United States,and the DPRK into Six-Party Talks,but it is the United States and North Korea that have a leading role in the process of the talks,the two sides'goal orientation and tactical choices directly affect the outcome of the talks,to more clearly present the combination of these choices and compromises between them,this article attempts to use part of the game theory to analyze the process of Six-Party Talks.Game theory is a maturation theory that has been developed for more than half a century and has already achieved very wide and successful applications in the field of economics,but there are not many applications in the field of international relations because many major issues in the field of international relations cannot be quantified,quantification will only simplify the complex relationships involved in the problem itself,therefore,applying game theory to analyze many international relations issues can only be a simple quantitative analysis as a whole,in-depth analysis still based on qualitative analysis.Faced with the problem of international relations,game theory is really difficult to play a greater role.Before this article applies game theory to analyzes the Six-Party Talks,firstly,through sorting out the process of the Six-Party Talks,we can identify the main body of the game,the goals pursued by the game player,and the actions that the game player will choose to reach the goal.Then,apply the most suitable game model to explain the existing results of the Six-Party Talks,introduce variables into the game model,and explain possible results.This is the key to this article.At last,reasonably predict possible ways to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully,including the development trend of the DPRK nuclear issue and the DPRK nuclear talks. |
PDF Full Text Request