The Impact Of Population Aging On Export Comparative Advantage Of Shandong Province

As a developing country with rapid economic development,China is at a crutial stage in the transformation of age structure.The degree of aging in China is already higher than the world average level,with a large population base and a heavier burden of support.As a typical province with a higher growth rate of aging process than average,Shandong Province also has a serious demographic aging problem.The gradual subsidence of the demographic dividend not only affected the economic growth and labor supply,but also changed the export-oriented economy which rely on the export of labor-intensive products.The research of the impact of aging on the comparative advantage of Shandong Province's exports is conducive to the transformation and upgrading of trade structure,which has certain practical significance and provide reference to answer the question about how to conduct trade development in the background of aging.Most of previous researches focus on the relationship between aging and economic growth,savings and labor supply,which lack of empirical analysis of aging and trade relations of provinces.Therefore,this paper concentrates on the relevant data of Shandong Province,and studies whether the relevant conclusions of the factor endowment theory and policy recommendations are applicable to the practical practice processe at the provincial level.Based on the data of various industries in Shandong Province,this article compares and analyzes the export comparative advantages of 22 industries in Shandong Province by using RCA,NEPR and export intensity.Taking the population aging index,capital intensity,proportion of foreign-invested enterprises and proportion of total losses in Shandong Province as explanatory variables and the dynamic panel data were regressed through the system GMM measurement method.Trough the empirical analysis we can get following conclusions.Comparing the average level of the whole country,the growth rate of aging in Shandong Province is slightly higher but the mode of foreign trade development is similar.The comparative advantage of Shandong Province is still concentrated in labor-intensive industries currently.Although there is a trend of weakening,it still plays an important part in Shandong's exports.However,as the aging of Shandong continues to increase,the proportion of the working-age population will be relatively lower and per capita capital will be more abundant,leading to the transformation of comparative advantages in export trade to capital-intensive industries.When the degree of aging is much higher,the export comparative advantage of capital-intensive industries may even exceed that of labor-intensive industries and thus occupy a dominant position in export trade.With the degree of aging improves,the shift in comparative advantage will have a favorable change in the export trade structure of Shandong Province although it is not conducive to the increase of Shandong's export comparative advantage.Therefore,the further enhancement of the capital-intensive export comparative advantage is conducive to the optimization and upgrade of exports' structure.Based on the basic situation of Shandong Province,relevant policy and recommendations are proposed as follows:Firstly,strengthen and improve the social security system for the elderly and introduce the surplus rural labor force.Secondly,support the release of the second-child policy,which will make the development of labor-intensive industries more stable.The third one is to improve the quality of the workforce,cultivate professional talents and give play to the advantages of human capital.Finally,it is to strengthen industrial transformation and upgrading,improve innovation capabilities,build Chinese brands and promote industries to the high-end position of the global value chain.It is hoped that it can deal with the issue of comparative advantage of trade in the context of aging and there will be enlightenment and inspiration for the whole country.