The Influence Of Aging Population On China's Export Trade Structure

Population aging has been a global problem.With the development of economy and improvement of medical and health services,people's life expectancy has been prolonged.At the same time,with the decline of the willingness of young people to bear,the birth rate has been reduced,which has led many countries in the world to inevitably enter an aging society.Before policy of planned birth in China,the birth rate was relatively high,which accumulated a large number of young labor force,and the international competitive advantage of labor cost was significant.Therefore,China produced and exported more labor-intensive commodities.However,according to the data of the Sixth Population Census,the proportion of population aging over 65 reached 8.87%,the proportion of labor force population gradually declined since 2010,and China's demographic dividend is fading.In 2017,the population aging over 65 has been reached over 10%.The aging of the population is deepening and the wages of the labor force will be further raised,which will directly affect the production and export of labor-intensive commodities and the structure of China's export trade.Therefore,the study of the impact of population aging on China's export trade structure has become the focus of this paper.At present,few scholars combine population aging with export trade structure.This paper's innovation lies in the empirical analysis of provincial panel data through collecting different region's data and carrying out sample population and grouping regression.And based on factor endowment theory and Robertzinski's theory in this paper,a comprehensive analysis of the impact of population aging on export trade structure from both static and dynamic perspectives can help us understand the mechanism of population aging on export trade structure more clearly.The conclusion of this paper is as follows: the trend of population aging forces the optimization of export trade structure.Theoretical and empirical analysis shows that population aging will promote the export of capital-intensive commodities.And the pressure of population aging make enterprises replace labor production with high technology,and force export trade structure to optimize and upgrade.