The Adjustment On China-philippines Relations By Duterte And Prospects

Under the background of United States carry out the so-called Asia-Pacific Rebalance Strategy,the Philippines and China occurred maritime island confrontation many times,the Philippines unilaterally submit the south China sea territorial disputes to international court of arbitration.After the new President Rodrigo Duterte took office,he started with pragmatism and put aside the south China sea arbitration case,then roundly adjusted the diplomatic relations with China.The intention is to get the domestic economy out of the doldrums and strengthen its political status.The reasons for President Duterte adjust the China-Philippines relations are as follows:domestic political and economic factors in the Philippines;south China sea claimant countries make their foreign policy aimed at maximizing the national interest,the Philippines is in ASEAN so the common interest makes it self-restraint in the south China sea issue;the dilemmas in the US-Philippines alliance;ChinaPhilippines economic relations are increasingly irreplaceable for Philippines economy.Based on the above analysis,the conclusion is that economic factors and the great power alliance dilemma factors are more decisive to the policy adjustment of Duterte,and become an important consideration for China holds China-Philippines relations.Although China and ASEAN reached a framework agreement on the parties to the code of conduct of the south China sea,China still need to alert the negative influences of the south China sea arbitration,especially the south China sea situation tend to be stable,the United States and Japan and other countries began to clamour the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy",eager to speak to regional allies,the American aircraft carrier not only reentered the south China sea,but also made a historic port call to Vietnam.The relations between China and the Philippines in the short term will not have big waves,in addition to the economic and trade relations,both sides have big cooperation space in areas of counter-terrorism and south China sea oil and gas development.However,there are still great uncertainties in the long-term development prospects,which are not only influenced by external factors,but also the changes of domestic political ecology in the Philippines.