Research On Situation Model Of Large Scale Crowd Gathering Risk Control

In open public places,the crowd density is high and the crowd flow is free.Compared with closed public places,open public places have higher risk of uncertainty,and it is easy to cause crowded stampede accidents.In order to effectively control the risk of crowd gathering and avoid the risk enlargement,the public security organs should rationally plan the police deployment.However,when the public security organs plan the police deployment,they mainly rely on personal experience.Low efficiency of police deployment is usually resulted from insufficient police force or excess of police force.Therefore,in order to better utilize the limited police configuration to control crowd gathering risk,this research subject was established on the basic theory of crowd gathering risk and police deployment,and combined with GIS spatial analysis function to research on the situation model of large scale crowd gathering risk control.First of all,through in-depth study of the relevant information,this research subject mastered the basic theory of crowd gathering risk and police deployment,confirmed definition,characteristics and source identification of crowd gathering risk,as well as the definition,characteristics and demand analysis of police deployment.Then,according to the basic principle of post allocation of the police deployment,through the comparison among different models,this research subject selected the location set covering model and maximal covering location model to construct the model of fixed location's selection,and selected the Tyson polygon model to construct the model of patrol area's division.Moreover,this research subject used the thought of analytic hierarchy process to construct the evaluation model of police deployment capability.It established the evaluation index system of crowd gathering risk control ability of police deployment personnel with 5 first level indexes and 15 second level indexes.Then it used the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to distribute weight of evaluation index system and evaluate crowd gathering risk control ability of police deployment personnel.Again,according to the basic theory of crowd gathering risk and police deployment,this research subject constructed the situation model of large scale crowd gathering risk control based on the model of fixed location's selection,the model of patrol area's division and the evaluation model of police deployment capability.Then it analyzed the model parameters,and put forward different levels of police redeployment decision in the light of different residual risk level.Finally,this research subject took Shichahai scenic area as research subject.The model of fixed location's selection,the model of patrol area's division,the evaluation model of police deployment capability and the situation model of large scale crowd gathering risk control are loaded into the GIS,and they were verified and analyzed by using the spatial analysis function of GIS.