Official's Tenure,land Finance And Housing Prices

Housing problem is not only an economic problem,but also a social problem concerned with social harmony and stability.In order to stabilize housing prices and curb the rising trend of house prices,the central government has issued a series of housing price control policies.However,the rise in housing prices is still very clear.In the process,have local governments really taken on the responsibility of "stabilizing house prices" ? This is worth questioning.The 1994 tax sharing reform led to mismatch between local governments' financial power and administrative power,and local finance generally faced deficit problems.The current official appraisal system in China is mainly measured by regional economic development indicators.Therefore,Local government officials need to make efforts to develop the regional economy during their term of office.The real estate industry is the pillar industry in many places,in addition,the land transfer system of our country also makes the local government can obtain a large amount of extra-budgetary income in this process,therefore,the local officials have the impetus to push up the housing price under the incentive of promotion.For officials in different tenure stages,the possibility of promotion is different,and the incentive to push up house prices through land finance is also different.Therefore,the term of office,land finance and house prices before the relationship is worth further study.Based on the above analysis,this paper expounds the theory mechanism that the official term affects the real estate price,and introduces the intermediary variable of the land finance,constructs the mediating effect model and the threshold effect model,and uses the information of the term of office of the mayor and the party secretary of the 70 large and medium cities in China in 2008,as well as the urban housing price and the basic economic index of the economy to analyze the impact of official tenure on the urban housing prices by using fixed impact panel data regression.Through empirical results,we can find:(1)The official tenure has a significant negative impact on housing prices.The longer the official tenure is,the more negative effects on the housing price will be.(2)By introducing the empirical results of the intermediary finance of the land finance,we find that the influence of the tenure of officials on housing prices is transmitted through land finance,and land finance has a significant positive impact on house prices.