Effects Of Rural Labor Migration On The Multi-crops Planting Decisions Of Heterogeneous Farmers Based On MAS

The effects of rural labor migration on the multi-crops planting decisions were a frontier topic in the field of the current crop planting decision-making,and it had the characteristics of complexity,scientific.Meanwhile,the multi-crops planting decisions of heterogeneous farmers included the cultivated land rent into or rent out decision and the multi-crops planting pattern decision.The relation between rural labor migration and land lease triggered a lot of academic researches.However,the multi-crops planting decisions of heterogeneous farmers had paid less attention to.This research could provide references for multi-crops planting decisions of the heterogeneous farmer,the regulation policies for farmer’s behavior,the planning of land use and the planting structure,and aim at eliminating the effects of rural labor migration on multi-crops planting decisions to coordinate the good relationship between supply and demand.To study the effects of rural labor migration on the multi-crops planting decisions of heterogeneous farmers,this paper firstly analyzed the research background,research status and the thesis framework,and combined the theory of rural labor migration,multi-crops decisions-making and the foundation of system simulation method in the application of planting decision-making.Then scenarios of current migration,promoting migration and restraining migration of rural labor were designed.The three scenarios were established based on the heterogeneous farmers’ multi-crops planting decisions system(HFPS)using a bottom-up approach based on multi agent simulation(MAS).To simulate the HFPS in Henan province(China),natural factors,social factors and the interactions among farmers were considered simultaneously,and the heterogeneous farmers had different expectation levels in HFPS.The HFPS allowed us to study the effects of rural labor migration on the multi-crops planting decisions of heterogeneous farmers.The multi-crops planting decisions model followed ODD protocol(Overview,Design Concepts and Details).The main contents were as follows:Firstly,the influence factors and driving mechanism of multi-crops planting decisions were studied.The mechanism considered the heterogeneous farmers’ ability of self-learning and self-adaptation.The HFPS in this paper considered the combined action of natural factors,social factors and the interactions among farmers,and realized a dynamic feedback control between the driving factors and the decision results of multi-crops planting.Secondly,the decision-making mechanisms of multi-crops planting considering rural labor migration were designed.The target of virtual farmers was to achieve their expected profits.The rural labor migration was simulated by the micro heterogeneous farmers using a bottom-up systematic thought.The mechanisms of multi-crops planting included the cultivated land rent into or rent out decision and the multi-crops planting pattern decision.Finally,the effects of rural labor migration on the multi-crops planting decisions were researched under different scenarios of rural labor migration based on NetLogo simulation platform.Combined with the multi-crops planting decisions model,the three scenarios were compared to study this academic issue,especially studied the effects of multi-crops planting decisions on the planting structure in the current labor transfer situation.Results were shown:(1)Higher rural labor migration was closely associated with larger cultivated land scale,especially for full-time farmers;(2)Rural labor migration altered the heterogeneous farmer multi-crops rotation patterns decision.Rural labor migration encouraged the heterogeneous farmer to choose the crop rotation patterns with high economic performance,such as maize-wheat.Higher rural labor migration decreased the adaptation of some crop rotation patterns,such as tubers-fallow.Overall,the cultivated land structure gradually becomes more simplified.(3)Rural labor migration had no significant effect on the popular crop rotation patterns.The popular crop rotation patterns were confirmed,such as maize-wheat,rice-wheat,soybean-wheat,cotton-wheat,tubers-fallow,and peanut-fallow.(4)With cropping cycles going on,the average cultivated land area of full-time farmers and part-time farmers was increasing continuously,and the gap was expanding constantly.(5)In the current labor transfer situation,the planting structure would change with time going on,and the percentage of wheat and maize was increasing,while the percentage of rice,soybean,potato,peanut,rapeseeds,cotton and so on were decreasing.