Population Flow,Insured Coverage And Pension Expenditure

The topic of this paper is the current hot topic of people’s livelihood in China.With the process of reform and opening up,the migration of rural labor to cities,the migration of labor in the central and western regions to the east,which lead to a phenomenon that the age structure of the population have become younger for the population inflows,and the problem of aging has increased for the population outflows.At the same time,the gap between the rich and the poor in the central and western regions,and the long-term solidification of the urban-rural dual structure have caused the differentiation and inequality of China’s social pension insurance.As the country with the world’s largest population and the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics,the issue of people’s livelihood has always been the focus of the party and the state.The difference in the degree of aging between regions caused by the floating population affects the inequality of pensions among the regions.Therefore,the floating population is regarded as important variables affecting pensions.The research object of this paper is population mobility,aging and social endowment insurance.It uses literature research method,comparative analysis method and quantitative and qualitative analysis method to study the inequality of regional pensions brought about by population aging.A lot of relevant literatures at home and abroad have been sorted out that this paper analyzes the relevant theoretical research on population mobility and pension expenditure..Then the status of the three is described and the following points are found:First,the most obvious manifestation of population movement is the migration of labor.It is an important driving force for the urbanization process.In order to obtain higher development opportunities and higher salary,people in rural areas are better than rural areas in terms of security,employment,housing,and medical care.A large number of rural laborers are constantly flocking to cities.In China,the population movement is mainly in the poorer areas of the central and western regions such as Guizhou and Chongqing flow into developed areas such as Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,Guangzhou and Zhejiang.Second,aging is the continuous increase in the proportion of the elderly population in the society,leading to the old-age state of the social demographic structure.According to the data of two national censuses in 2000 and 2010,12 regions entered an aging society in 2000,and in 2010,26 regions entered an aging society.It can be seen that the degree of aging in China is more serious.From a regional perspective,the aging process in the western region accelerated during the decade,while the aging of the eastern coastal regions did not increase too much.Third,the difference in pension areas.China’s basic old-age insurance is classified as localized management.Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and other regions have achieved provincial-level coordination,but other regions have also achieved.According to the collection of per capita pensions from 2001 to 2016,the provinces with the lowest annual pension collection are mainly concentrated in underdeveloped areas such as Jiangxi,Chongqing and Jilin,and the provinces with the highest pension receipts are concentrated in developed areas such as Beijing and Shanghai.This paper takes Insured coverage as a mediator,and also expounds the mechanism of population movement on the coverage of insurance coverage and the mechanism of population movement on pension expenditure.Based on this,the hypothesis of this paper is put forward: For the area of “population overflow”,the labor population increases,the insured coverage expanded and thepension expenditure is high.For the area of “population loss”,the labor population decreases,the insured coverage is reduced and the pension expenditure is low.When conducting an empirical test on the above assumptions,this paper selects the provincial panel data of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet)from 2001 to 2016,and uses the fixed effect model for verification.The results of empirical research show that:(1)There is a significant positive correlation between population mobility and regional pension.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between insurance coverage and pension expenditure.(3)Insurance coverage plays a part in mediating the impact of population mobility on regional pensions.Considering the endogeneity problem,this paper selects the number of primary schools as the instrumental variable,and further validates the validity of the conclusion by the 2LSL method.This paper further divides 30 provinces into the eastern,central and western regions to explore the impact of population mobility on regional pensions.The results show that in the central region,population movements still have a positive correlation with regional pensions.Finally,based on the research perspective of this paper,combined with the current policy background and macro environment,this paper puts forward some constructive suggestions for the improvement of China’s pension insurance system.