Research On Pension Mode Of The Ageing Population In Shijiazhuang

Since China entered the aging society, accelerating the process of population aging, the aging population continued to increase the size, leading to the obstacle of the economic continuous expansion, the elderly pension contradictions have become increasingly prominent,the impact of population aging on social and economic life has attracted more and more attention. Hebei Province, the population aging puts forward a series of measures,Shijiazhuang city is also actively deal with the problem of aging population, to accelerate the development of pension services, accelerate the construction of well-off society, the pension services, the overall coordination of economic and social development of the city has put forward many new ideas, combined with the actual situation in Shijiazhuang, making the pension service the system of the "thirteenth five year" plan, put forward a series of policies to deal with the aging of the population. However, we do not know the details of the aging population in Shijiazhuang and its development trend, the pension model and the wishes of the elderly are not clear. Therefore, analysis of the aging population, pension and endowment of Shijiazhuang City, find out the existing problems and their causes, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, for the municipal government to formulate relevant policies, which has important practical significance to social harmony and stability,and domestic economic and social sustainable development.In this paper, the following work has been done:(1) based on the census data of Shijiazhuang City, the number of the city's aging population, sex ratio, age, occupation, health status, economic level and other factors are analyzed in detail, summarizes the status and characteristics of the elderly in Shijiazhuang City, find the rules and problems.(2) based on the statistical yearbook and census data of Shijiazhuang, the ARIMA model is used to forecast the number of the aged population in Shijiazhuang.In order to avoid the population data of Shijiazhuang city due to the lack of distortion,firstly the exponential smoothing model to predict the aging population in Shijiazhuang City,the prediction model is better, the Shijiazhuang city in the next few years aging population data, and then use the ARIMA model to the aging population of Shijiazhuang city trend forecast, according to the forecast curve can be seen, the aging population the future will continue to expand the scale, steady growth, but the growth rate slowed down the aging population.(3) according to a survey of the aging population in Shijiazhuang City, a detailed analysis of the various factors related to the aging of the population, the proportion of gender, age,occupation, health status, economic development level, using the correlation analysis method,from age, income, health status of aging population on the pension model and the choice of the future endowment.(4) based on the analysis and Research on the model of the old age population in Shijiazhuang and their willingness to support the aged, the paper finds out the existing problems and puts forward some feasible countermeasures.