Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In Three Northeast Provinces

In the 21 st century,the world is experiencing a wide-ranging and influential population aging problem.The aging of the population affects many aspects of human society and is a problem that all countries in the world must pay attention to and explore.According to the natural law of population growth,if a country's economic prosperity progresses to a certain period,the trend of population aging will become apparent.International common standards stipulate that if the population aged 65 and over accounts for more than 7% of the total population of the society,Or the population aged 60 and over accounts for more than 10% of the total population of the society,so the society has reached the standard of entering an aging society.This will lead to population development problems such as lower mortality,lower birth rates and natural population growth.Since ancient times,China has been a country with a large population,a vast territory,and a sparsely populated area.Therefore,the development between different regions is very uneven.Since the reform and opening up,China has achieved rapid economic growth.Economists believe that this kind of rapid economic growth is realized.The reason is achieved by relying on the huge “demographic dividend”.However,with the continuous improvement of the level of economic development and the special historical background of the implementation of the family planning policy,the problem of population aging in China has gradually emerged.The degree of population aging in different regions is also different.Therefore,for the current economic development of China,a very important research topic is the relationship between population and economic growth.The issue of economic growth has always been a hot research issue in the field of economics and one of the targets of China's macroeconomic regulation.In recent years,in addition to the problem of economic growth for many years in the northeastern provinces,there are also problems such as low birth rate,low mortality rate,and low natural population growth rate.The aging population is intensifying and will inevitably have a negative impact on local economic growth.As of the end of 2017,the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and over in Liaoning Province,Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province was 14.35%,12.38%,and 12%,respectively.Compared with 2016,the proportion has increased by 0.85,1.34,and 0.20 percentage points respectively.Among them,the number of elderly people aged 65 to 69 increased by 357,000,an increase of 7.78% year-on-year.The number of elderly people aged 70-79 increased by 47,000,an increase of 2.03% year-on-year.The number of elderly people aged 80-89 increased by 70,000,an increase of 7.83.%,the number of elderly people over 100 years old increased by 129,an increase of 8.6%.The number of elderly people aged 80 and over reached 1.066 million,accounting for 12.7% of the elderly population.It can be seen that the population of the three northeastern provinces is accelerating,and the number of elderly people is increasing.It is currently in a period of accelerated growth in the elderly population.In this context,it is necessary to analyze the impact of population aging on the economic growth of the three northeastern provinces.This paper defines the concept of population aging and economic growth,introduces the theory related to this,and theoretically analyzes how population aging affects economic growth through savings,labor supply and human capital accumulation,and focuses on the population of the three northeastern provinces.The development trend of aging analyzes the causes of population aging and its possible impact on economic growth.By introducing the aging factor of the population,that is,the old-age dependency ratio,into the expanded Solow model,based on the panel of the three northeastern provinces 1998-2017.Data,construct econometric model,establish a fixed effect model through cointegration analysis,empirically analyze the negative impact of the elderly dependency ratio index on economic growth,from the empirical results,the elderly population dependency ratio and population growth rate and capital depreciation depreciation The sum of rates will have a negative impact on economic growth,while the labor age population share,human capital stock,labor participation rate and savings rate will promote economic growth.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,it proposes countermeasures to reduce the negative impact of population aging on economic growth in the three northeastern provinces.