Research On The Countermeasures Of China's Emergency Lndustrial Agglomeration Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of our country's economy and society,the risks are increasing.The frequency of emergencies in China increased not only brings huge losses to the country and the people,and its far-reaching influence,the government and the people pay more attention to public safety,emergency industry as an emerging industry has gained rapid development,cluster development which is a rapid development of industry has become urgent to improve the ability to resolve unexpected events,quickly and effectively respond to critical emergencies.Based on this,firstly this paper explores the status and shortcomings of the industry's growth in China;Secondly,constitute the basis of emergency on the causal relationship between industry agglomeration system elements and the elements of the above,the system is divided into the talent,technology,capital,market four factors subsystem,system dynamics model by using Vensim simulation platform to build emergency industry cluster development;Then,taking Suizhou of Hubei Province special vehicle cluster development as an example,the use of Delphi Method and AHP for the system's various impact indicators were calculated and analyzed the weight of each index value,assess,evaluate the use of system dynamics that Suizhou special vehicle value,the change trend of exploring the key factors affecting its agglomeration 2006-2015 years of development and development of industrial agglomeration effect;Finally,based on the results of this study,this paper puts forward the corresponding measures for the sustainable and efficient development of China's emergency industrial agglomeration.The main research work and conclusion of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper summarizes the development status of China's emergency industry agglomeration,studies the problems in the process of industrial agglomeration in the current stage,and probes into the main influencing factors of the process,and emphasizes the importance of emergency industrial agglomeration for emergency response and disposal.(2)By using the theory and method of system dynamics,the viewpoint of the system is introduced into the emergency industrial agglomeration,and the emergency industrial agglomeration in China is taken as a system.On the basis of literature research and empirical analysis,we establish the foundation of building the model,analyze the subsystem structure,and finally complete the dynamic system modeling of emergency industrial agglomeration.By analyzing the relationship among the variables in the model,we can dynamically show its change rule and the influence between subsystems,and try to find out the internal factors that drive and hinder the development of emergency industry cluster.(3)A case analysis of the dynamic model of the emergency industrial agglomeration system was carried out by the special vehicle in Suizhou of Hubei Province.Using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to construct the index system of the influencing factors of the emergency industrial agglomeration development,and using Delphi Method to score the indicators at all levels.On this basis,the judgment matrix of the index is constructed,and the weights and evaluation values of the indexes at all levels in 2006-2015 years are determined by the software yaahp6.0.On this basis,we use system dynamics to analyze the industrial cluster of special purpose vehicle in Suizhou,find the important factors that affect the development of the park,and analyze its development trend.(4)The results obtained in this paper are combined with simulation experiments.The countermeasures and suggestions of emergency industrial agglomeration in China are put forward: improve the personnel training mechanism,improve technical level,improve the investment and financing system,and expand market demand which expect to provide a reference for the development of China's emergency industrial agglomeration to a certain extent.