Hedging Or Balancing:Belarus' Strategic Calculation Towards Two Great Powers-China And Russia

Belarus is a small state that needs to survive in our rapidly developing and politically unstable world.Having emerged as a newly independent country as the result of the collapse of the USSR,Belarus faced a difficult choice in the decision where it was going to move further and on whom it could rely.In particular,in recent years,Belarus needs to make a subtle strategic calculation as to how to manage its relations with new big powers: Russia and China.According to the classic theories of international relations,a small state can choose one of the following foreign policy strategies: bandwagon,balance of power,or hedging.Nowadays the relations and cooperation between China and Belarus are developing,but the closest ties with Russia may limit Belarus‘ cooperation with other countries.The relations between Russia and Belarus have deep historic roots;common mentality,culture and history make these two states to be very good allies.Moreover,Belarus is a post-Soviet country.But,during the past few years there have been misunderstandings between Belarus and Russia,thus this may be the reason for increasing Belarus‘ cooperation with China,especially within the One Belt One Road Initiative.Belarus‘ choice of foreign policy strategy cannot be characterized by the ideal types derived from classic theories.The paper argues that during different time periods,Belarus used a combination of classic strategies,in a selective manner,which gives it the chance for maneuvering.Belarus‘ choice of strategy towards Russia is divided into three periods.1991-1995: the collapse of the USSR left Belarus‘ economy destroyed as it was oriented on the Soviet Union,thus Belarus decided to bandwagon with partial balancing for re-establishing and developing its economy.1995-2013: Belarus began to declare its independence and was fearful of losing its newfound independence,it cooperated and created alliances with Russia,thus it chose partial balancing.2013-present day: after the Ukrainian Crisis,Belarus chose to hedge with partial balancing,so it began calculate the risks and benefits of the current situation(as the West started to notice Belarus).Belarus‘ strategies towards China are divided into two periods: 1992-2010 and 2010-present day.1992-2010: Both countries tried to know each other and develop relations,thus it chose partial balance of power.2010-present day: the relations between both countries have become wider.Belarus hedges with partial balancing for calculating all the risks and benefits that it may get from the cooperation with China.Belarus does not hedge or balance against Russia by relying on China,as the ties that connect Russia and Belarus are very close.The recent events show that Belarus is hedging with partial balancing in order to meet its national interests and be more independent in its decisions in the political arena.However,it is obvious that both countries are priorities for Belarus.